If McCain Were President Right Now

[Skill and Chance]

Would there be a Progressive equivalent of the Tea Party running around nominating single payer advocates in states like GA and IN?

[Oakvale]

I guess Code Pink and those type of nuts would be more vocal, but no, not really.

[Brittain33]

The problem with this hypothetical is that I can't imagine a scenario where McCain wins in 2008. Another VP, he would have lost by a narrower margin and the race would have been less entertaining. But the economy and mood for change were too great to overcome, so asking about the implications of a McCain win on the national mood is like asking what would have happened if Hitler responded to the attack on Pearl Harbor by declaring war on Japan.

[Skill and Chance]

I can just see the Dem posters in an uproar about how someone like Matheson in UT lost to an unknown hard left primary challenger, killing their chances.  The only difference is that the fight would be over getting to 67 for veto override power.

[You kip if you want to...]

No. Fox News and the Murdoch's are too powerful to let that happen.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Such a movement didn't develop during the Bush years, so there's no reason to think it would develop under a McCain presidency. That said, I think after the alternate 2010 elections, President McCain would be reduced to a rubber stamp as Democrats would have a real chance of winning super-majorities in both houses of congress.

[opebo]

No, nothing would happen.   

[Mr.Phips]

Such a movement didn't develop during the Bush years, so there's no reason to think it would develop under a McCain presidency. That said, I think after the alternate 2010 elections, President McCain would be reduced to a rubber stamp as Democrats would have a real chance of winning super-majorities in both houses of congress.

I wish this had happened.

[Dan the Roman]

The Tea Party would have happened, but the anti-Bailout, anti-Global warming movement would have been aimed at a Republican President. Therefore the movement would have been more insular, and the Democrats would have been waiting in the wings to actually win Kentucky and Alaska.

Furthermore, by this point, I think a President McCain who had signed cap and trade as well as a stimulus, would have come to the conclusion that his odds of winning renomination would be nonexistent, which means we would be dealing with a Charlie Crist type shift to the left in the occupant of the Oval Office.

[Vepres]

No, as Democrats would have the House and Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

No, as Democrats would have the House and Senate.

A McCain win might have been enough to give Republicans back the House. 

[J. J.]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

[Skill and Chance]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

It would have been a much bigger wave than that.  Remember, the 2010 slate of senate seats would favor Dem gains in a neutral year.  With the present economy and McCain as president, getting to 67/290 would be a distinct possibility, if not likely.  If the Dems got within Snowe+Collins distance of 67, they would force an HCR plan almost as liberal as Obamacare on McCain in 2011.  This would be much worse for the Reps than the real life outcome because president McCain would be seen as being complicit in HCR and likely Cap and Trade as well.  If you think Obama is bad now, imagine what he would be like with a 300/70 Congressional majority after taking down McCain in 2012.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

Where would the 25-35 house seats come from? Most of the Republican marginal seats had all been wiped out either in 2006 or 2008. I guess districts like Bachmann's could become toss-up, but there aren't too many other's they could go after. If those incumbents survived in 2006 and 2008 there's no way they're losing in bizzaro world 2010.

[Skill and Chance]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

Where would the 25-35 house seats come from? Most of the Republican marginal seats had all been wiped out either in 2006 or 2008. I guess districts like Bachmann's could become toss-up, but there aren't too many other's they could go after. If those incumbents survived in 2006 and 2008 there's no way they're losing in bizzaro world 2010.

Look at 1930-36, a real-life path to a crazy supermajority.  2012 would be 1936 in this world.  Take some seats off to account for the solid south effect.

[Mr.Phips]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

Where would the 25-35 house seats come from? Most of the Republican marginal seats had all been wiped out either in 2006 or 2008. I guess districts like Bachmann's could become toss-up, but there aren't too many other's they could go after. If those incumbents survived in 2006 and 2008 there's no way they're losing in bizzaro world 2010.

Probably had McCain been strong enough to win in 2008, a lot of close races would have gone to the Republicans that went to Democrats in real life.  For instance, I dont think Democrats would have picked up AL-02, FL-08, MI-07, NY-29, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, CT-04, VA-02, PA-03, VA-05, or held NH-01 and NY-24 had McCain been strong enough to win.  The Obama wave helped Democrats down the ballot.

[Dan the Roman]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

Where would the 25-35 house seats come from? Most of the Republican marginal seats had all been wiped out either in 2006 or 2008. I guess districts like Bachmann's could become toss-up, but there aren't too many other's they could go after. If those incumbents survived in 2006 and 2008 there's no way they're losing in bizzaro world 2010.

Probably had McCain been strong enough to win in 2008, a lot of close races would have gone to the Republicans that went to Democrats in real life.  For instance, I dont think Democrats would have picked up AL-02, FL-08, MI-07, NY-29, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, CT-04, VA-02, PA-03, VA-05, or held NH-01 and NY-24 had McCain been strong enough to win.  The Obama wave helped Democrats down the ballot.

Florida is quite polarized at the national level, and along with Ohio, its a place where Obama basically flatlined outside of a few minority heavy areas. I think FL-08 and PA-03 were won in spite of Obama, ditto Al-02 where he did far worse than Gore or Kerry. I mean in the south you hit the point where you are winning no white votes anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

If McCain were president, and associated with the economic problems, we'd be talking about the Democrats gaining 4-5 Senate seats, and 25-35 House seats (though some incumbents would have lost the primary).

Where would the 25-35 house seats come from? Most of the Republican marginal seats had all been wiped out either in 2006 or 2008. I guess districts like Bachmann's could become toss-up, but there aren't too many other's they could go after. If those incumbents survived in 2006 and 2008 there's no way they're losing in bizzaro world 2010.

Probably had McCain been strong enough to win in 2008, a lot of close races would have gone to the Republicans that went to Democrats in real life.  For instance, I dont think Democrats would have picked up AL-02, FL-08, MI-07, NY-29, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, CT-04, VA-02, PA-03, VA-05, or held NH-01 and NY-24 had McCain been strong enough to win.  The Obama wave helped Democrats down the ballot.

Florida is quite polarized at the national level, and along with Ohio, its a place where Obama basically flatlined outside of a few minority heavy areas. I think FL-08 and PA-03 were won in spite of Obama, ditto Al-02 where he did far worse than Gore or Kerry. I mean in the south you hit the point where you are winning no white votes anyway.

Oh, I definately think Grayson won because of Obama.  Their votes tracked almost identically across counties.  Had McCain won, he would have almost certainly won Florida and that district, and Grayson wouldnt have won.  This isnt your typical Southern District, its more like a district in suburban Philadelphia or New Jersey. 

In PA-03, Obama only lost by around 18 votes.  Dahlkemper won there because Obama came so close.  Obama's big win in industrial Erie county was almost certainly what helped carry Dahlkemper over the finish line. 

I might give you AL-02, but the result was so close that I think Obama's getting a good number of whites in Montgomery county was what gave Bright his 1,000 vote victory.