Is Calimigration dominating the west

[bushforever]

As several cities and towns in the west continue to grow at good paces, will it be because of migration from California, Washington, and other liberal places??  I've already sadly watched Teton County, WY go democrat, as well as several more ski resort counties in Colorado.   Montana too.  Should both parties continue to pour their money into Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Denver??  Does Mr. Fresh really have something to fear with Boise/Ada County??  Suburban growth usually helps the GOP, but will it be a different story in the future.  I'm thinking increased Hispanic immigration and migration out of California could make the entire west as swingy as the Midwest.  What do you think?

[Horus]

I think California is actually slightly drifting to the right but at a snails pace, nowhere near the other four southwest states. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada are all drifting leftwards. Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico already are battlegrounds, and Arizona is a developing one.

[J. J.]

One question is going to be the Hispanic vote; if they start trending GOP, CA goes back to where it was, in terms of voting patterns, in the 1970's and 80's.

[bushforever]

One question is going to be the Hispanic vote; if they start trending GOP, CA goes back to where it was, in terms of voting patterns, in the 1970's and 80's.

True, but why is the Lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas so democratic.  That concerns me.  I would expect that area to start trending GOP.

[Beet]

Actually the Rio Grande Valley is turning more Republican than the past. Also, Arizona is trending Republican, it's becoming more and more Republican. Also, as Kodratos pointed out, SoCal is trending Republican. Bush is even improving in LA county.

That worries me. The Dems cannot take California for granted by no means.

[JNB]

   The Ski Resort Towns have a fairly small population base. CO giving Bush a little under 53% of the vote is in line with the amount of the vote it gave his father in 88.  NM has been a swing state for decades, AZ has drifted some to the Democratic side, but Bush still won it by 11%. NV in the 80s was soldily GOP, but it wasnt in the 70s, and in 92 swung towrds Clinton.

   The increased Hispanic population has made an imact in NV, AZ and CO and made them competitive, but not to the extent anticipated.

[Beet]

Let's compare Bush's performance in AZ compared to the national vote.

This year, he won it by 11.37%, whereas he won nationally by 2.93%, a difference of 8.44% more Republican.

In 2000, he won it by 6.28%, whereas he lost nationally by 0.51%, a difference of 6.79% more Republican (and this is NOT including Nader, who was not on the ballot this year).

Overall, the state swung at least 1.65% more Republican in comparison to the national average, and probably more when Nader's 2000 vote is distributed, compared to a 5.09% absolute swing.

[opebo]

One question is going to be the Hispanic vote; if they start trending GOP, CA goes back to where it was, in terms of voting patterns, in the 1970's and 80's.

True, but why is the Lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas so democratic.  That concerns me.  I would expect that area to start trending GOP.

Because nearly everyone down there is shockingly poor.  Well I suppose that would describe most of Texas.. but shockingly poor and almost entirely hispanic.

[dougrhess]

Looking at turnout can be problematic when trying to read "trends." Afterall, if you are an infrequent voter and only motivated by the top of the ballot, you don't have much motivation if your state appears to have already been decided. It would be interesting to see if turnout is statistically surpressed in states with predictably large margins in top of the ticket races.

[Vagabond Manifesto]

First of all, I just want to say hi to the board...add another political junkie to the roster.

It's clear that some areas of the West are becoming more liberal. I hear this "Californication" argument a lot--that this is due to people moving from the West Coast. The areas you mentioned tend to attract environmentalists, artists, and other types. Look at Grand County, Utah for example, which includes the outdoor mecca of Moab. No ski area there, but anyone who's visited knows it's a liberal place--Bush lost by 300 votes in a state where he got over 70%. Environmentalists and outdoor enthusiasts are the reason. This is repeated around the West-- Taos, Boulder, Ketchum, Telluride, and so on.

It is liberals moving in--but they're not just from the coasts. They come from other areas as well, including the Great Plains. Many liberals here in Nebraska (believe me, we do exist!) believe the political climate is stifling and flee the state--Colorado and the coasts are common destinations. I assume this is repeated in other flat, conservative states. I know numerous people my age (20s) who have done this very thing.

Environmentalists, artists, climbers, skiers, and like-minded people are attracted to certain landscapes. These people don't just come from California.

[opebo]

Welcome, Vagabond Manifesto.. as far as I know you're the first new arrival *after* the election!

[kwab]

Also, as Kodratos pointed out, SoCal is trending Republican. Bush is even improving in LA county.

That worries me. The Dems cannot take California for granted by no means.

Living in southern cali (in between LA and Anaheim), I want to believe that, but it's barely trending at a slow pace.  Bush's father was the last Rep to win California, and even then he still lost LA county by 5% or around 100,000 votes.  However, the heavy minority suburbs of LA could be the difference in the future (my surrounding area is about 40% latino, 35% asian, 20% white, 5% black) especially with the latino vote increasing by 7% to Bush since '00.

Even though Orange county, San Diego county, and the rest of the southern counties  can somewhat offset LA, there's still the Bay Area which is as Democratic as it gets in the US.

LA county - 2004
Kerry - 62.7% ... 1,757,317
Bush - 36.1% ... 1,009,919   

LA county - 2000
Gore - 63.5% ... 1,710,505
Bush - 32.4% ... 871,930

Orange county - 2004
Kerry - 39.1% ... 352,515   
Bush - 59.8% ... 539,671

Orange county - 2000
Gore - 40.4% ... 391,819
Bush - 55.8% ... 541,299

San Diego county - 2004
Kerry - 46.5% ... 443,769
Bush - 52.5% ... 500,386

San Diego county - 2000
Gore - 45.7% ... 437,666   
Bush - 49.6% ... 475,736

Bay Area ('Frisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa, & Marin) - 2004
Kerry - 70.9% ... 1,429,503
Bush - 27.9% ... 562,183

Bay Area ('Frisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa, & Marin) - 2000
Gore - 65.2% ... 1,387,187
Bush - 29.0% ... 616,066

[AuH2O]

Hispanics support Dems a bit more because they have lower incomes. As their incomes rise, which they are, then their voting patterns will become less and less ethnic in nature- though certainly hispanic candidates still stand to benefit.

[bgwah]

OMG Mr. Fresh, I know what you're talking about. Its not exactly the same insults, but these assholes move to Seattle from California (my city (suburb of Seattle) is at least 1/3 Californian) just to constantly complain about how much it sucks. They say it rains too much, that Washington sucks, BLAH BLAH BLAH. Its very insulting. Its one of the reasons I HATE California. They export these annoying jerks to the rest of the West.

I always thought that it was white Republicans fleeing California? I'm pretty sure they're white, but I guess I'm not sure if they are Republican or not?

[RN]

When the Los Angeles Rams became the St. Louis Rams, one of the news anchors here heard so much complaining from the players about having to be here compared to California that he gave a speech that we are not exactly Mayberry.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hispanics support Dems a bit more because they have lower incomes. As their incomes rise, which they are, then their voting patterns will become less and less ethnic in nature- though certainly hispanic candidates still stand to benefit.

I'd be careful of Latinos.  They are very much like Irish/Southern & Eastern European Catholics of 100 years ago.  A good number I know are VERY socially conservative.  With more financial security, many may find the GOP and I hate to say it that's likely.   

[The Vorlon]

In Oregon the influx of folks from California is refered to as "Californication"