CT: Rasmussen: Blumenthal keeps his lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Connecticut Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-09-09

Summary: D: 53%, R: 44%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

This actually makes me feel a lot better about this race. I was afraid it was in toss-up/3 point lead for Blumenthal status right now, but it's still lean dem. Of course, with McMahon's money it could still become closer.

The last Rass poll was 47-40 Blumenthal by the way.

[Lief 🗽]

So, according to Rass, at worst the race has stayed the same, at best Blumenthal is consolidating his lead and over 50%.

[cinyc]

The only way McMahon wins is if Blumenthal makes more major gaffes.  He's proven capable of it, so I wouldn't rule it out.  Possible, but not likely.

McMahon is still spending a ton of money on advertising, even in the expensive NYC market.  She seems to have a new ad every few days.  Most are very good.  Her ad team is excellent.

[Torie]

I am surprised the McMahon is falling back a bit, with all that money she is spending. She strikes me as a pretty effective candidate. We shall see.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I am surprised the McMahon is falling back a bit, with all that money she is spending. She strikes me as a pretty effective candidate. We shall see.

Could be the wrestling stuff is hurting her. Or she's just run so many ads already that each one brings diminishing results.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Easy answer: Obama's approval in the poll is 55-44.

[Torie]

Easy answer: Obama's approval in the poll is 55-44.

Good point, and a bit surprising, really.

[Skill and Chance]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

NH isn't solid.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

NH isn't solid.

Or Maine.

[Skill and Chance]

Only NH has voted R in the past 20 years.  That is a pretty solid region.  Granted, it was in a 50-50 election so it actually is quite significant that NH voted Bush. 

[Dgov]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

not really--Democrats would be doomed if that was their only real base of support like the South was for the Dems between 1870 and 1950.  22 House Seats isn't close to the 100-150 the Democrats basically had a lock on for 80 years.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

not really--Democrats would be doomed if that was their only real base of support like the South was for the Dems between 1870 and 1950.  22 House Seats isn't close to the 100-150 the Democrats basically had a lock on for 80 years.

Also New England is nowhere near as solidly Democratic as the old South was. Especially not in this cycle since the GOP has already taken an MA Senate seat, will probably take Senate and House seats in NH (maybe even ME), and is competitive in CT.

[Dgov]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

not really--Democrats would be doomed if that was their only real base of support like the South was for the Dems between 1870 and 1950.  22 House Seats isn't close to the 100-150 the Democrats basically had a lock on for 80 years.

Also New England is nowhere near as solidly Democratic as the old South was. Especially not in this cycle since the GOP has already taken an MA Senate seat, will probably take Senate and House seats in NH (maybe even ME), and is competitive in CT.

Not to mention the reason they're locked out of a seat in MA is due to extensive gerrymandering

[Dan the Roman]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

not really--Democrats would be doomed if that was their only real base of support like the South was for the Dems between 1870 and 1950.  22 House Seats isn't close to the 100-150 the Democrats basically had a lock on for 80 years.

Also New England is nowhere near as solidly Democratic as the old South was. Especially not in this cycle since the GOP has already taken an MA Senate seat, will probably take Senate and House seats in NH (maybe even ME), and is competitive in CT.

Not to mention the reason they're locked out of a seat in MA is due to extensive gerrymandering

Not really the case. The reason they are locked out of MA is due to lacking any areas of support. There are two types of communities in MA. Areas that go 67-33 Democratic and areas that go 55-45 Democratic. Even coming up with reliable GOP precincts to draw "safe republican" state house seats is next to impossible. A large number of such seats, draw specifically to elect Republicans in the 2002 redistricting, currently have Democrats representing them. My seat went for Romney 59-37 in 2002, and for Brown 55-44. The Democratic incumbent is barely even facing a challenge.

 Add the fact that the areas voting Republican vary immensely from race to race(look at the 1998 and 2002 Gov races for very different coalitions leading to the same numerical result), and without a massive change in political allegiance, the GOP will never hold anything other than precariously.

The reason the Democrats have elected officials in states like Texas or South Carolina, or even Utah, is because all the Democrats, while a minority are concentrated in one place. Republicans don't tend to concentrate in cities, and they are still a distinct minority even in the wealthiest suburbs. In fact, looking at the fact that Scott Brown won 7 districts with 53% of the vote, I would argue that the current map is actually quite favorable to them.

[Brittain33]

Not to mention the reason they're locked out of a seat in MA is due to extensive gerrymandering

In addition to what Dan said, the reason the map looks the way it does is because they tried to protect certain incumbents while losing seats to other states, which resulted in awkward combinations of existing districts. The 5th district as currently drawn descends from a district promoted by Bill Weld, in fact.

[ajc0918]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

Umm
here's a list of competitive races in New England for 2010:
ME Gov*
MA Gov
VT Gov*
CT Gov (kinda, within 15 points)
CT Sen
NH Sen*
CT-04*
CT-05
MA-10
NH-01*
NH-02*
* Republican favored
Two republican senators from ME, one from MA.
Current GOP governors in VT, CT, RI.

So sure, the republicans don't win every race, but with good candidates Republicans can win races. Unless they decided to go ultra conservative and nominate tea partiers.

[Skill and Chance]

Aside from Scott Brown (who is a 50/50 proposition in 2012), New England is becoming the new Solid South.

Umm
here's a list of competitive races in New England for 2010:
ME Gov*  Agreed, probably Likely R at this point
MA Gov   Toss-up- tilt D, but only because Baker is left of most non-Northeastern Democrats!
VT Gov*  Need to see a poll given the D-lean of the state, but Dubie probably has a slight lead
CT Gov (kinda, within 15 points)  Really pushing it to call this competitive given curent polling
CT Sen  Competitive, but Blumenthal is clearly favored.
NH Sen*  I think the Tea Party is about to do something very stupid here
CT-04*    All current pooling has Himes ahead, even a Debicella internal as I recall.  He probably holds on 52-48 or 53-47
CT-05      55-45 D win instead of 65-35
MA-10      Same as CT-05
NH-01*  Agreed, basically a certain R takeover
NH-02*  Likely R takeover, but not as certain as NH-01
* Republican favored
Two republican senators from ME, one from MA.
Current GOP governors in VT, CT, RI.

RI is long gone and CT is basically gone. Reps wil come out of it with only ME and possibly VT (where Dems have a supermajority in the legislature that isn't going anywhere)

So sure, the republicans don't win every race, but with good candidates Republicans can win races. Unless they decided to go ultra conservative and nominate tea partiers.

[Dan the Roman]

Not to mention the reason they're locked out of a seat in MA is due to extensive gerrymandering

In addition to what Dan said, the reason the map looks the way it does is because they tried to protect certain incumbents while losing seats to other states, which resulted in awkward combinations of existing districts. The 5th district as currently drawn descends from a district promoted by Bill Weld, in fact.

Ironically, the New England situation for the GOP is likely to get a lot worse in 2012. The 2012 redistricting in MA lacked a partisan motive. That will not be true next year if Jeff Perry wins MA-10. And Connecticut has a compromise map, with 2 ultra-safe safe Democratic seats, 1 lean Democratic, and two swing ones. If the Democrats control the trifecta you will either see a 4-1 incumbent protection map, or if the Democrats are not too shaken by 2010, a 5D one.

[Vepres]

Of the six Governorships in NE, three are held by Republicans currently. Of the 12 Senate seats, 4 are held by Republicans.

So no, it is not like the solid south. It is like a Democratic version of the plains states. One party wins more often than not, but the other party has successes too.