Vorlon, who will win tomorrow?
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Author Topic: Vorlon, who will win tomorrow?  (Read 2976 times)
Hearnes
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« on: November 01, 2004, 10:53:41 AM »
Vorlon, who will win tomorrow?
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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2004, 10:55:58 AM »
No one knows, and anyone who claims to be certain is lying either to themselves or to you....
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2004, 11:16:13 AM »

I will have my final "map" up either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

And I will "predict" then.

My prediction has exactly the same probability of accuracy as flipping a coin, maybe not even quite that good Smiley
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2004, 03:07:17 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 11:16:13 AM

I will have my final "map" up either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

And I will "predict" then.

My prediction has exactly the same probability of accuracy as flipping a coin, maybe not even quite that good Smiley

A coin would not be very accurate.

Coins hardly ever land on their side.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2004, 03:13:55 PM »
I was about to ask this, but decided against.

Glad to see someone asked.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2004, 03:14:35 PM »
Vorlon, you left out South Carolina.  Any opinions?
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Rococo4
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2004, 03:15:11 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 11:16:13 AM

I will have my final "map" up either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

And I will "predict" then.

My prediction has exactly the same probability of accuracy as flipping a coin, maybe not even quite that good Smiley

forgot south carolina - a probable demint win - another R pickup
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2004, 03:19:17 PM »
Quote from: SamSpade on November 01, 2004, 03:14:35 PM
Vorlon, you left out South Carolina.  Any opinions?

Sorry - I forgot

DeMint, but not by a ton - Maybe 5-7ish is what I hear.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2004, 03:21:38 PM »
Quote from: Treasury Secretary Beef on November 01, 2004, 03:07:17 PM
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 11:16:13 AM

I will have my final "map" up either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

And I will "predict" then.

My prediction has exactly the same probability of accuracy as flipping a coin, maybe not even quite that good Smiley

A coin would not be very accurate.

Coins hardly ever land on their side.

I take it that you have never seen Shaulin Soccer.  Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2004, 03:23:07 PM »
That would make it 53 GOP - 45 DEM 1 IND, depending on what happens in the Louisiana runoff as your predicting.

Sorry to be so corrective around here.  Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2004, 03:26:10 PM »
Quote from: SamSpade on November 01, 2004, 03:23:07 PM
That would make it 53 GOP - 45 DEM 1 IND, depending on what happens in the Louisiana runoff as your predicting.

Sorry to be so corrective around here.  Smiley

No problem.. I make lots of mistakes... getting old and grey Sad
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2004, 03:32:02 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 03:26:10 PM
Quote from: SamSpade on November 01, 2004, 03:23:07 PM
That would make it 53 GOP - 45 DEM 1 IND, depending on what happens in the Louisiana runoff as your predicting.

Sorry to be so corrective around here.  Smiley

No problem.. I make lots of mistakes... getting old and grey Sad

So is that wacky Kentucky Senator a lock, then?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2004, 03:32:50 PM »
Yes, maybe only be 8-10, but yes.
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angus
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2004, 03:48:56 PM »
So far, based on Vorlon's predictions, I make it 52-47-1 in the US senate.   and the house?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2004, 03:54:50 PM »
Quote from: angus on November 01, 2004, 03:48:56 PM
So far, based on Vorlon's predictions, I make it 52-47-1 in the US senate.   and the house?

FWIW, I predict no change in WI.  Ron Kind (D) is the only rep in any kind of trouble, and I think he'll win.  I wish Tammy would lose, but I have to be realistic and recognize that she is pretty much invincible for life in the new CD2.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2004, 04:02:38 PM »
Quote from: Treasury Secretary Beef on November 01, 2004, 03:32:02 PM
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 03:26:10 PM
Quote from: SamSpade on November 01, 2004, 03:23:07 PM
That would make it 53 GOP - 45 DEM 1 IND, depending on what happens in the Louisiana runoff as your predicting.

Sorry to be so corrective around here.  Smiley

No problem.. I make lots of mistakes... getting old and grey Sad

So is that wacky Kentucky Senator a lock, then?

Yes Bunning in Kentucky by 10ish seems about right.

Guys is looney-tunes but in Kentucky it is prettty hard to lose as a GOP senate candidate.

If he had simply hidden in Washington for the last 3 months he would be up by 20.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2004, 04:04:24 PM »
As the icon shows, I'm from Kentucky.  The very, very liberal Courier Journal is out for blood with Bunning.  Still, he leads by eight or nine points.  I think a new Survey USA poll the race at about that margin today.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2004, 04:05:17 PM »
I'd vote for him, because as far as I'm concerned we need at least one guy in the Senate who's pitched a perfect game in MLB.  Smiley

I'm just happy that I'll probably be getting Coburn and DeMint in the Senate.  They're both looney enough and good of enough loose cannons that they could shake up the crap that goes on in that place.
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angus
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2004, 04:06:55 PM »
Quote from: Treasury Secretary Beef on November 01, 2004, 03:54:50 PM
Quote from: angus on November 01, 2004, 03:48:56 PM
So far, based on Vorlon's predictions, I make it 52-47-1 in the US senate.   and the house?

FWIW, I predict no change in WI.  Ron Kind (D) is the only rep in any kind of trouble, and I think he'll win.  I wish Tammy would lose, but I have to be realistic and recognize that she is pretty much invincible for life in the new CD2.
I guess you only get major changes in House delegations when you get major changes in state legislatures (e.g., TX currently, or CA about a decade ago).  Good 'ol partisanship...

There are maybe 30 real house races, according to WaPo.  Kind was one of them.  seems he'll win too.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2004, 04:22:03 PM »
Quote from: angus on November 01, 2004, 04:06:55 PM
There are maybe 30 real house races, according to WaPo.  Kind was one of them.  seems he'll win too.

I think so, but I haven't seen any polls.  You know where I could find some?  CD3 may as well be in Nevada, as I'm never in that part of the state.
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angus
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2004, 04:27:20 PM »
sorry, no.  best I can do is direct you to a (pretty good) handicapping site which predicts WI CD3 as Kind favored 6 to 1.  pretty sure bet, if they know what they're doing (and this is rothenburg and co., they're pretty good.)

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2004, 05:26:43 PM »
Quote from: angus on November 01, 2004, 04:27:20 PM
sorry, no.  best I can do is direct you to a (pretty good) handicapping site which predicts WI CD3 as Kind favored 6 to 1.  pretty sure bet, if they know what they're doing (and this is rothenburg and co., they're pretty good.)

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12

How can Dave Obey be only 10-to-1?  HE HAS NO REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER!  Read those words carefully.  A 10% that the seat could be won by a Green or Constitution?  Heh.

I'd say it goes like this:

1. Ryan (R): 10-1
2. Tammy (D): 8-1
3. Kind (D): 4-1
4. Moore (D): 10-1
5. Sensenbrenner (R): 200-1
6. Petri (R): 200-1
7. Obey (D): 100-1
8. Green (R): 200-1
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dougrhess
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2004, 07:05:45 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 11:16:13 AM

I will have my final "map" up either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

And I will "predict" then.

My prediction has exactly the same probability of accuracy as flipping a coin, maybe not even quite that good Smiley

No Kentucky Senate prediction?

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