U.S. Debt As a % of GDP Change By Presidential Terms

[Bo]

Since 1945

Truman (2nd term):-23.9%
Eisenhower (1st term):-10.4%
Clinton (2nd term):-9.8%
Eisenhower (2nd term):-7.9%
LBJ:-6.8%
JFK/LBJ (1961-1965):-6.7%
Carter:-2.8%
Nixon/Ford (1973-1977):-0.9%
Truman (1st term):+0.6%
Clinton (1st term):+3.0
Bush (1st term):5.6%
Bush (2nd term):6.3%
Reagan (1st term):7.3%
Reagan (2nd term):11.2%
Bush Sr.:12.2%

This rebukes the claim that Republicans have been fiscal conservatives over the last 30 years. The last time the GOP were fiscal conservatives were under Ford, when ironically they did not much such a big deal out of being fiscally conservative.

[Bo]

Clinton (2nd term):-9.8%
LBJ:-6.8%
JFK/LBJ (1961-1965):-6.7%
Carter:-2.8%
Nixon/Ford (1973-1977):-0.9%
Clinton (1st term):+3.0
Bush (1st term):5.6%
Bush (2nd term):6.3%
Reagan (1st term):7.3%
Reagan (2nd term):11.2%
Bush Sr.:12.2%

The claim that the GOP is the fiscally irresponsible party is further strengthtened if Truman and Eisenhower are removed. This is now since 1961 instead of since 1945.

[phk]

% of GOP. Lol

[Bo]

% of GOP. Lol

I fixed it.

[phk]

Some time series for you Roch. It may more useful than aggregate arithmetic averages.

These are from the NBER and the St. Louis Fed mostly. Some from UCSD.


Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP. NBER defined recessions shaded gray; assumes last recession ended 09Q2. Sources: Series FYGFDPUN  from St. Louis Fed FREDII, with 09Q4 data from CBO, and BEA, 2009Q4 advance release, NBER, and author's calculations.


Alternate Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP. NBER defined recessions shaded gray; assumes last recession ended 09Q2. Sources: Series FYGFDPUN  from St. Louis Fed FREDII, with 09Q4 data from CBO, and BEA, 2009Q4 advance release, NBER, and author's calculations.


Figure 2: Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, from FREDII (red square), from Treasury (blue line). NBER defined recessions shaded gray; assumes last recession ended 09M06. Solid line at 2009M01. Sources: Series FYGFDPUN  from St. Louis Fed FREDII, from December 2009 Treasury Bulletin, and Macroeconomic Advisers (Jan. 15 2010 release), NBER, and author's calculations.


Detail of Figure 2: Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, 2008M10-2009M02, from FREDII (red square), from Treasury (blue line). Sources: Series FYGFDPUN  from St. Louis Fed FREDII, from December 2009 Treasury Bulletin, and Macroeconomic Advisers (Jan. 15 2010 release), NBER, and author's calculations.


Figure 3: Federal debt held by the public as a share of potential GDP (as measured CBO estimate of potential, interpolated from quarterly to monthly by quadratic match average), from FREDII (red square), from Treasury (blue line). NBER defined recessions shaded gray; assumes last recession ended 09M06. Solid line at 2009M01. Sources: Series FYGFDPUN  from St. Louis Fed FREDII, from December 2009 Treasury Bulletin, and CBO  (Jan. 26 2010 release), NBER, and author's calculations.

[opebo]

The reason behind this is obvious - the Republicans irresponsibly undertax their masters, the rich.