Challenge for map nerds

[memphis]

Can anybody "gerrymander" the states to produce a McCain EC victory in 2008? Since the states, obviously, need not be in any way equal in population, I'm thinking that it may be possible. Let's keep the states at fifty to preserve the magic 270 needs. Also, keep the states contiguous and adjust electoral votes accrodingly. Examples of how this may be possible, throw some conservative South in with Florida to produce a narrow GOP win in a big electoral state. Pack the Democratic voters of the Northeast together to reduce their electoral clout. Let's see what you guys can do.

[Bo]

Here's an idea: Have Canada annex all the Kerry states in 2004. Then McCain wins most of the remaining states in Jesusland. Here's a map.

http://www.basetree.com/graphics/jesusland.jpg

[Padfoot]

Well I made a map but my computer is being a dick and won't load it so I'll do my best to describe it and hopefully someone else can post it.

Step 1: Combine ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, and CT  This gives one Democratic mega-state with about 24 EVs. (Obama:24 McCain:0 states:45)

Step 2: Add all contiguous Obama counties in eastern PA to NJ.  This creates another Democratic megastate with approximately 24 EVs.  The remaining part of Pennsylvania minus York and Lancaster counties creates a Republican state with approximately 11 EVs (Obama:48  McCaine:11 states:45)

Step 3: Separate Lorain and Cuyahoga counties from the rest of Ohio.  Together they create a small Democratic state with 5 EVs and the remainder of Ohio goes Republican with 17EVs. (Obama:53 McCain:28 states:46)

Step 4: Add all Bush '04 counties in eastern Maryland to Delaware as well as York and Lancaster counties in Pennsylvania and Northampton, Accomack, and Westmoreland counties in Virginia.  This creates a Republican state with approximately 5 EVs.  (Obama: 53 McCain: 33 states:46)

Step 5: Add All Obama Maryland counties to Obama NOVA counties creating a Democratic state with 11 EVs. (Obama:64 McCain:33 states:36)

Step 6: Take the remaining Maryland counties and add them to West Virginia (except Mercer county) which adds another EV to WV so McCain now gets 6 EVs there. (Obama:64 McCain:39 states:46)

Step 7: Add Mercer Co, WV to the remaining part of Virginia to get a Republican state with 10 EVs. (Obama:64 McCain:49 states:46)

Step 8: Add Unicoi, Carter, and Johnson counties from Tennessee to North Carolina.  North Carolina flips to Republicans and together the two states are worth 26 EVs (Obama:64 McCain:75 states:46)

Step 9: In Florida; St. Lucie, Martin, Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties form a new Democratic state with 10 EVs.  All remaining counties south of and including Levy, Marion, and Volusia create a 13 EV Republican state.  The remaining northern part is now an 8 EV GOP state.  (Obama:74 McCain:96 states:48)

Step 10: In Illinois take all contiguous Obama counties in the north except for Bureau, Fulton, McDonough, and any counties south of the latter two.  Add the northern IL counties to Lake County, IN to form a 18 EV Democratic state.  Indiana is now a 10 EV GOP state and the remaining IL counties make a 6 EV GOP state. (Obama:92 McCain:112 states:49)

Step 11: Make Orange County California its own state.  It has 6 EVs and the rest of California is now at 51 EVs. (Obama:143 McCain:112 states:50)

If you ad up the remaining EVS from the unchanged states you get Obama:263 McCain:275

There are some rough estimates going on with regards to EVs in more than a few places here but I'm fairly certain my math is correct with regards to how the states would vote.  You could actually increase McCain's victory even further by adding parts of Texas to New Mexico to make that state flip.  Adding Las Vegas to Arizona keeps McCain's home state in his column and flips the remaining part of Nevada to him.  Wyoming and Utah can encroach into Colorado taking away 1 EV a piece while staying in the GOP camp.  A 5 EV GOP state can be carved out of the eastern portions of Oregon and Washington.  You could also get another 9-10 GOP EVs out of California depending on how you divvy it up.

[Hash]

Learn to read you twit.

[Nordstrand]

Even though Obama wins the popular vote by nearly 10,000,000 votes, redrawing some state borders produces a McCain victory of 277-261

Modified/New States

New England
Pop: 13.9M
ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, and CT combined
24 EV, Obama 61-38 (Kerry 58-41)

Pennsylvania
Pop: 4.4M
Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties combined with New Castle, DE and Cecil, MD
9 EV, Obama 66-33 (Kerry 62-37)

Westylvania
Pop: 8.4M
Pennsylvania excluding its five southeastern counties
15 EV, McCain 49.97-48.41 (Bush 54-45)

Delmarva
Pop: 640,000
Eastern Shore of MD (except Cecil), Kent and Sussex of DE, and Eastern Shore of VA
3 EV, McCain 52-46 (Bush 59-40)

Virginia
Pop: 7.8M
All of West Virginia and Virginia combined, excluding Fairfax and Arlington counties, and cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church, combined with Garrett, Allegheny, and Washington counties in MD
14 EV, McCain 50-48 (Bush 56-43)

Maryland
Pop: 6.0M
Current Maryland excluding three westernmost counties (the panhandle) and the Eastern Shore; adds Fairfax and Arlington from VA, plus cities of Fairfax, Alexandria, and Falls Church, VA; DC is now surrounded by Maryland
11 EV, Obama 65-33 (Kerry 58-42)

Erie
Pop: 4.0M
13 counties in Northeast Ohio: Lorain, Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Trumbull, Mahoning, Columbiana, Stark, Wayne, Medina, Summit, Portage
8 EV, Obama 59-39 (Kerry 58-42)

Ohio
Pop: 7.3
Ohio excluding 13 counties in the northeast
13 EV, McCain 51-47 (Bush 56-44)

Indiana
Pop: 5.6M
Exclude Lake County
11 EV, McCain 50-48 (Bush 61-37)

Illinois
Pop: 12.9M
Includes Lake County, IN
22 EV, Obama 62-37 (Kerry 55-44)

Dakota
Pop: 1.4M
Combines North and South Dakota
4 EV, McCain 53-45 (Bush 61-37)

North Carolina
Pop: 8.1M
Includes Johnson, Carter, and Unicoi counties from Tennessee
15 EV, McCain 49.56-49.52 (Bush 56-43)

Tennessee
Pop: 5.6M
Excludes Johnson, Carter, and Unicoi counties
11 EV, McCain 57-42 (Bush 57-43)

South Florida
Pop: 5.1M
Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties
10 EV, Obama 62-38 (Kerry 59-41)

Florida
Pop: 10.9M
Excludes Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties
19 EV, McCain 52-47 (Bush 56-43)

Cascadia
Pop: 7.1M
Combines Western Washington with northwestern Oregon, as far south as Lane County
13 EV, Obama 61-36 (Kerry 56-42)

Lincoln
Pop: 1.6M
Combines Eastern Washington with the Idaho panhandle
4 EV, McCain 55-42 (Bush 60-39)

Idaho
Pop: 1.4M
Excludes Idaho’s panhandle (everything north of Idaho county), and eastern Oregon, with the new state’s westernmost counties being Oregon’s Wasco, Jefferson, Deschutes, and Harney
4 EV, McCain 60-37 (Bush 68-31)

Jefferson
Pop: 600,000
Southwestern Oregon and three northernmost California counties
3 EV, McCain 54-43 (Bush 61-38)

Nevada
Pop: 600,000
Nevada excluding Clark and Nye counties
3 EV, McCain 49-49 (Bush 57-41)

South Nevada
Pop: 1.4M
Clark and Nye counties (geographically most of Nye would be in Nevada, but most of the population lives in the southern part, so I counted Nye’s votes here)
4 EV, Obama 58-40 (Kerry 51-47)

Pacifica
Pop: 8.2M
Coastal California counties from Humboldt to San Luis Obispo, also including non-coastal Trinity, Lake, Napa, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Benito, and Yolo
15 EV, Obama 72-26 (Kerry 67-31)

Central Valley
Pop: 5.9M
Counties in California as far North as Shasta and Lassen, and as far south as Kern, but excluding Yolo County (which I put with Pacifica, otherwise this state would have voted for Obama)
11 EV, McCain 49.00-48.69 (Bush 59-40)

California
Pop: 19.7M
Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, and Imperial
33 EV, Obama 59.51-38.47 (Kerry 52-47)

[Bo]

Even though Obama wins the popular vote by nearly 10,000,000 votes, redrawing some state borders produces a McCain victory of 277-261

Modified/New States

New England
Pop: 13.9M
ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, and CT combined
24 EV, Obama 61-38 (Kerry 58-41)

Pennsylvania
Pop: 4.4M
Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties combined with New Castle, DE and Cecil, MD
9 EV, Obama 66-33 (Kerry 62-37)

Westylvania
Pop: 8.4M
Pennsylvania excluding its five southeastern counties
15 EV, McCain 49.97-48.41 (Bush 54-45)

Delmarva
Pop: 640,000
Eastern Shore of MD (except Cecil), Kent and Sussex of DE, and Eastern Shore of VA
3 EV, McCain 52-46 (Bush 59-40)

Virginia
Pop: 7.8M
All of West Virginia and Virginia combined, excluding Fairfax and Arlington counties, and cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church, combined with Garrett, Allegheny, and Washington counties in MD
14 EV, McCain 50-48 (Bush 56-43)

Maryland
Pop: 6.0M
Current Maryland excluding three westernmost counties (the panhandle) and the Eastern Shore; adds Fairfax and Arlington from VA, plus cities of Fairfax, Alexandria, and Falls Church, VA; DC is now surrounded by Maryland
11 EV, Obama 65-33 (Kerry 58-42)

Erie
Pop: 4.0M
13 counties in Northeast Ohio: Lorain, Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Trumbull, Mahoning, Columbiana, Stark, Wayne, Medina, Summit, Portage
8 EV, Obama 59-39 (Kerry 58-42)

Ohio
Pop: 7.3
Ohio excluding 13 counties in the northeast
13 EV, McCain 51-47 (Bush 56-44)

Indiana
Pop: 5.6M
Exclude Lake County
11 EV, McCain 50-48 (Bush 61-37)

Illinois
Pop: 12.9M
Includes Lake County, IN
22 EV, Obama 62-37 (Kerry 55-44)

Dakota
Pop: 1.4M
Combines North and South Dakota
4 EV, McCain 53-45 (Bush 61-37)

North Carolina
Pop: 8.1M
Includes Johnson, Carter, and Unicoi counties from Tennessee
15 EV, McCain 49.56-49.52 (Bush 56-43)

Tennessee
Pop: 5.6M
Excludes Johnson, Carter, and Unicoi counties
11 EV, McCain 57-42 (Bush 57-43)

South Florida
Pop: 5.1M
Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties
10 EV, Obama 62-38 (Kerry 59-41)

Florida
Pop: 10.9M
Excludes Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties
19 EV, McCain 52-47 (Bush 56-43)

Cascadia
Pop: 7.1M
Combines Western Washington with northwestern Oregon, as far south as Lane County
13 EV, Obama 61-36 (Kerry 56-42)

Lincoln
Pop: 1.6M
Combines Eastern Washington with the Idaho panhandle
4 EV, McCain 55-42 (Bush 60-39)

Idaho
Pop: 1.4M
Excludes Idaho’s panhandle (everything north of Idaho county), and eastern Oregon, with the new state’s westernmost counties being Oregon’s Wasco, Jefferson, Deschutes, and Harney
4 EV, McCain 60-37 (Bush 68-31)

Jefferson
Pop: 600,000
Southwestern Oregon and three northernmost California counties
3 EV, McCain 54-43 (Bush 61-38)

Nevada
Pop: 600,000
Nevada excluding Clark and Nye counties
3 EV, McCain 49-49 (Bush 57-41)

South Nevada
Pop: 1.4M
Clark and Nye counties (geographically most of Nye would be in Nevada, but most of the population lives in the southern part, so I counted Nye’s votes here)
4 EV, Obama 58-40 (Kerry 51-47)

Pacifica
Pop: 8.2M
Coastal California counties from Humboldt to San Luis Obispo, also including non-coastal Trinity, Lake, Napa, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Benito, and Yolo
15 EV, Obama 72-26 (Kerry 67-31)

Central Valley
Pop: 5.9M
Counties in California as far North as Shasta and Lassen, and as far south as Kern, but excluding Yolo County (which I put with Pacifica, otherwise this state would have voted for Obama)
11 EV, McCain 49.00-48.69 (Bush 59-40)

California
Pop: 19.7M
Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, and Imperial
33 EV, Obama 59.51-38.47 (Kerry 52-47)

Nice job. Very impressive.

[Nym90]

It'd be interesting to do this for some other years too.

2004 and 2000 would both be easy....just give enough of western Ohio to Indiana to enable Kerry to win Ohio, and give enough of northern Florida to Georgia or Alabama to enable Gore to win Florida.