Alberta Provincial Politics

[Smid]

Apparently two PC MPPs have crossed the floor to join the Wildrose Alliance. Probably not the beginning of the end for the PC... the beginning of the end was the Glenmore by-election, backed up by that last poll, although this is certainly another nail in the coffin.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, PCs are done. What do you think about it?

[Hash]

End of era, that's certain. The WRA is playing it's cards right thus far, most importantly by choosing an urbanite libertarian over a redneck for its leadership, dropping the Rural Redneck Alliance image. That said, it's a long time until the next election still but these are uncharted waters and unprecedented happenings in Albertan politics.

Quite interesting to say the least. Interesting that the backlash has come from the right of the PCs, and not the usual opposition as usually happens in the rest of Canada. And it seems Albertans continue to be traditionalist in that they seem to be sticking with the tradition of not placing a party which has previously lost power back in power.

[minionofmidas]

End of era, that's certain.

Certain? I wouldn't go that far. Not yet.

Looking ever likelier, though.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I sort of hope it stays competitive, since we'll actually get to see some interesting patterns and learn more about which parts of conservative Alberta are the ultra-conservative parts. It's not a straight rural-urban split.

But this is fairly unlikely.

[Verily]

I sort of hope it stays competitive, since we'll actually get to see some interesting patterns and learn more about which parts of conservative Alberta are the ultra-conservative parts. It's not a straight rural-urban split.

But this is fairly unlikely.

Can't see a stable system with both the WRA and PCs winning substantial numbers of seats. For one, that sort of split would mean more Liberals being elected, and Alberta doesn't like that. Either the PCs will collapse and disappear, replaced by the WRA, or they'll miraculously recover and the WRA will be left with few or no seats at the next election.

The WRA isn't as radical as you suggest, either, at least in comparison to the Alberta PCs. Not now that they're being run by their urban wing instead of their hick wing, anyway.

I'm surprised that this isn't getting a bit of international attention. Smith is very much a libertarian (and calls herself such)--surely the prospect of the First Libertarian Government in the World should have the libertarians of the internet slobbering with joy?

[Linus Van Pelt]

The WRA isn't as radical as you suggest, either, at least in comparison to the Alberta PCs. Not now that they're being run by their urban wing instead of their hick wing, anyway.

I don't think this is really right - it's true that they've moderated on the social issues that dominate American politics, but this has never been too important on the provincial level in Canada. On economic issues and on federalism, both of which in Alberta are basically code for "how much money do oil and gas companies get to keep", they are definitely more radical than Stelmach's PC's. And the latter will have serious implications for Canadian policy in general, since a Premier Smith would do anything she could to stop a serious national carbon pricing scheme.

[mileslunn]

A lot can happen between now in 2012 or perhaps even 2013, however I do see some familiar patterns happening here. 

Alberta usually stays with one party for over 30 years than replaces it with a party that is in third or lower and that party is on the right side of the spectrum.  The WRA fits all of those criteria.  The reality is Alberta is a right wing province so you are always going to have a party on the right win, although moderate right, not hard right.  If the WRA comes across as too wacko, then they will likely not win.  Albertans are probably more libertarian than socially conservative.  Only Rural Alberta is socially conservative while Calgary is libertarian and Edmonton is more centrist and despite Rural Alberta's over representation there are still more seats in the two cities combined, so you have to win at least one of them or have a decent showing in both to win the election.

[Cubby]

Albertans are probably more libertarian than socially conservative.  Only Rural Alberta is socially conservative while Calgary is libertarian and Edmonton is more centrist.....

I know this is a thread on Provincial politics, but based on the 2008 federal election, I assumed Edmonton was slightly more socially liberal because of the 1 NDP riding (Strathcona). Is that what you mean by centrist, or are you saying Edmonton is more like rural Alberta than Calgary (socially)?

And if there is a difference between the two cities, why is that?

[Хahar 🤔]

Albertans are probably more libertarian than socially conservative.  Only Rural Alberta is socially conservative while Calgary is libertarian and Edmonton is more centrist.....

I know this is a thread on Provincial politics, but based on the 2008 federal election, I assumed Edmonton was slightly more socially liberal because of the 1 NDP riding (Strathcona). Is that what you mean by centrist, or are you saying Edmonton is more like rural Alberta than Calgary (socially)?

And if there is a difference between the two cities, why is that?

Edmonton is to the left of Calgary, but it's still one of the most right-wing cities in Canada. If we are to use the Alberta-as-Texas analogy (and why not?), then Calgary is Dallas and Edmonton is Houston (I think). At any rate, Calgary is more of an oil town.

[Hash]

Edmonton is not as left-voting (if I can use such a simplistic term) in its voting patters as Houston, and Edmonton includes some (not a lot) of areas which get closer with Austin (Strathcona).

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, yeah, it's a rather simplistic comparison. But Calgary is Dallas.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Albertans are probably more libertarian than socially conservative.  Only Rural Alberta is socially conservative while Calgary is libertarian and Edmonton is more centrist.....

I know this is a thread on Provincial politics, but based on the 2008 federal election, I assumed Edmonton was slightly more socially liberal because of the 1 NDP riding (Strathcona). Is that what you mean by centrist, or are you saying Edmonton is more like rural Alberta than Calgary (socially)?

And if there is a difference between the two cities, why is that?

Edmonton has the provincial government and the province's main research university, which provide a small upscale-liberal vote on the inner south side, plus it has more of the oil-and-gas related manufacturing (pipelines etc.), providing a blue-collar vote in scattered parts of the rest of the city that can swing to the NDP, especially at the provincial level. Calgary has the headquarters of all the main oil and gas companies (EnCana, Suncor, plus the local Shell, Exxon etc), so it's more private sector/white-collar (except for construction).

[Nhoj]

What kinda place is Lethbridge? i noticed it had a provincial liberal as its MLA.

[Linus Van Pelt]

What kinda place is Lethbridge? i noticed it had a provincial liberal as its MLA.

Basically it's just another conservative small Alberta city, but it does have the only university outside Calgary & Edmonton (though a smaller, mostly undergraduate one.) I assume this is the main reason it's a bit less conservative than Red Deer or Medicine Hat. In the federal election the Conservatives won every poll, but there's a stretch of polls where the combined NDP/Liberal vote is higher.