In which of the 3 big states will Bush win?

[Shira]

The common wisdom suggests that the winner in two of the three states FL, OH, and PA will be the next president. So lets see in which one of them Bush will win.

[Defarge]

If Kerry wins, it'll probably be Florida. 

[J. J.]

FL is trending to Bush.  OH is tied, but Kerry has no momentum there.  While Kerry has no momentum in PA, he's still holding enough of a lead to keep it for a fortnight; if turnout is poor, that would be a different story.  

PA-Kerry
FL, OH-Bush

[Andrew]

We won't know about Florida or Ohio on election night; they're both going to be way too screwed up for an early decision.

[StevenNick]

I'm fairly confident that Bush will win Ohio and Florida.  The polls seem to indicate that the President has some significant momentum at this late stage in the election, so a win in Pennsylvania is not out of the question, but he would still have to gain another two or three points nationally in order to win in that state.

[Shira]

I'm fairly confident that Bush will win Ohio and Florida.  The polls seem to indicate that the President has some significant momentum at this late stage in the election, so a win in Pennsylvania is not out of the question, but he would still have to gain another two or three points nationally in order to win in that state.

Go to
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
and then navigate to the FL section

[J. J.]

I'm fairly confident that Bush will win Ohio and Florida.  The polls seem to indicate that the President has some significant momentum at this late stage in the election, so a win in Pennsylvania is not out of the question, but he would still have to gain another two or three points nationally in order to win in that state.

Go to
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
and then navigate to the FL section

Which was taken on Friday and Saturday when a large part of the population was at football games, especially out of the cities and in suburban and rural Republican areas.