Tonight- the most important night of the campaign
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Author Topic: Tonight- the most important night of the campaign  (Read 882 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« on: October 13, 2004, 06:18:21 PM »
Why? 



Bush 254
Kerry 247

That's why. 

This debate centers on the issues that matter most to who will pick the next president. 
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khirkhib
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2004, 06:52:15 PM »
You are probably right.  This is the final push.  Whoever wins this tonight (and the spin) can probably ride it to the finish line.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2004, 07:09:56 PM »
I agree.
With the electorate at a tie (+/- 2%) who ever comes away with a net shift of even 1% will win on Nov 2.

In all probablity it will be Kerry.
He does his best in a debate format, he can pander better on domestic issues, he can blame everything in America that is not perfect on Bush
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zachman
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2004, 07:27:03 PM »
Its the last chance for the candidates to seek a referendum on their keynote wedge issue. I think they will both lay out their strategy for the next three weeks.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2004, 07:32:20 PM »
You are all completely wrong.  Unless one candidate scores the best victory every, and I mean ever, in a presidential debate the numbers will settle, probably by a week from Friday.  I'm saying this about either candidate; if either wins tonight, this will not make a long term difference.  The winner may get a bounce, but that's it.

Even assuming Bush wins, it is not over.
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TheOldLine
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2004, 07:50:36 PM »
If Bush gets even so much as a tie tonight, the inexorable math of 270 makes him the favorite to win.   Kerry will likely have to find some other way to change the race's dynamics over the next three weeks without a debate to do so...

TheOldLine
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No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2004, 08:46:17 PM »
Quote from: khirkhib on October 13, 2004, 06:52:15 PM
You are probably right.  This is the final push.  Whoever wins this tonight (and the spin) can probably ride it to the finish line.

Three weeks is too long to ride debate spin to the finish line.
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M
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2004, 10:50:38 PM »
I think NM and NH are still grey, my guess is both will flip from their 2000 result because of regionalization nationwide (so Kerry sweeps Yankeedom and Left Coast, Bush sweeps Dixie and the Heartland, and it all relies on the All-American Midwest).
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AuH2O
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2004, 10:56:23 PM »
People overrate the importance of the debates.

Bush is still very likely to win.
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