Redban
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,997
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« on: March 28, 2024, 06:24:04 PM » |
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A poll shows Trump ahead, and people on this site dive in the crosstabs to conclude that the poll must be wrong because Trump has too much support from young people or persons of color
So it leads me to the simple question - can a poll ever show Trump ahead without being wrong?
If you think the answer is no, just say so.. But if you think the answer is yes, I’d like to know exactly how? In other words, what sort of crosstabs would be acceptable for you in a poll result where Trump is ahead?
Trump lost 2020 by 4.5%, so a result in which he is ahead must entail a swing in his favor among Democrat groups. Even if Trump makes more gains with groups he carried in 2020, he won’t be able to pull ahead with just them. He would have to make some gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters, right? But according to this site, any poll that shows his making gains with blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and young voters must be wrong! … so how are we ever supposed to get a result where Trump is ahead?
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