2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

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Biden team unveils strategy ... instead of getting people to actually like their guy, they will try to block voter choices to make people hold their noses

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-democrats-robert-f-kennedy-jr-third-party.html

In recent weeks, the Democratic National Committee has built a unit dedicated to monitoring and responding to third-party candidates. ... Simultaneously, former Biden deputy campaign manager Pete Kavanuagh launched Clear Choice, a super-PAC whose goal is to help liberals coordinate their efforts to minimize third-party candidates’ political influence by the fall. Rather than planning a big negative-ad campaign now, the push is intended to organize previously disparate efforts to mount legal challenges to third-party campaigns’ attempts to get on ballots, and to research the candidates’ pasts

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Nicole Shanahan has ties to Oakland

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1772241238349001097

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DNC Corruption.



the day before Kennedy is set to announce his vice president, Nevada Secretary of State, Democrat Francisco Aguilar, is making a desperate attempt to invalidate the campaign’s signatures in the state.

“This is the epitome of corruption,” said Kennedy campaign ballot access attorney Paul Rossi. “After successfully collecting all of the signatures we need in Nevada, the DNC Goon Squad and their lackeys in the Nevada Secretary of State’s office are outright inventing a new requirement for the petition with zero legal basis. The Nevada statute does not require the VP on the petition. The petition does not even have a field for a VP on it. The state confirmed that the petition does not require a VP in writing on Nov. 14. The state approved our petition without a VP on it in writing on Jan. 9.”
…

This corrupt attempt by the Nevada Secretary of State must be enjoined by a federal judge. The Kennedy campaign intends to depose the Secretary of State to find out exactly which White House or DNC official concocted this scheme.

https://www.kennedy24.com/dnc_invents_new_rule_invalidate_rfk_jr_nevada_signatures

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https://rumble.com/v4lh736-robert-f.-kennedy-jr.-announcement-vice-president-pick.html

Also his official YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RunrpokDyKE

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https://twitter.com/LauraLoomer/status/1772936836664435003

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4560883-rfk-jr-super-pac-says-it-raised-2m-after-vp-announcement/amp/

RFK Jr. super PAC says it raised $2M after VP announcement

American Values 2024, the main outside group supporting Kennedy’s White House bid, raked in $2.1 million at a fundraiser on Tuesday, right after the official announcement of tech attorney and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan joining his 2024 ticket, PAC head Tony Lyons shared first with The Hill.

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Ruling out a No-Labels bid, Christie cites the potential to take votes away from Biden. Presumably, Christie's polling/research shows this possibility

That Democrats would actually consider Christie over Biden is an indicator of how unsatisfied Democrats are with Biden: they would consider a pro-2nd Amendment, pro-life, low government spending conservative over Biden .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/27/chris-christie-no-labels-president/

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RFK Jr has 6.7 million followers across Insta, Tiktok, Twitter, FB, Youtube, Threads, and Rumble. His State of the Union got 12.1 million views and 1.7 likes .

He has a following: the notion that he will finish 1-2% is becoming fantasy

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/rfk-jr-tik-tok-social-media-young-voters?

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/03/29/rfk_jr_is_in_it_to_win_it_not_spoil_it_150719.html

RFK Jr. Is In It To Win It, Not Spoil It

“Establishment Democrats tell everyone who will listen that Kennedy and Shanahan are "spoilers" -- that their candidacy inevitably will throw support away from President Joe Biden and help former President Donald Trump.

If so, that's what the party gets for pushing the most entrenched but least enticing Democrat in the game.
…

A recent statement released by RFK siblings Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P. Kennedy II and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and other Kennedys denounced RFK's candidacy as dangerous … My opinion of the late Robert F. Kennedy's son just shot up. Imagine growing up in the kind of family where some of your own careerist sisters and brothers would publicly go after your candidacy because they prefer Biden. And they're proud of it

You know who's probably secretly appalled? Joe Biden.“

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568015-rfk-jr-campaign-says-it-has-qualified-for-ballot-in-north-carolina/

RFK Jr. has qualified for ballot in North Carolina, campaign says


Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has added North Carolina to the expanding list of battleground states in which it has qualified for the ballot in November.

The independent candidate’s campaign says it now has enough signatures to list Kennedy as a White House contender through the “We The People” party, gathering 23,000 pledges of support in the purple state [13,757 is required].

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https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/rfk-polling-black-voters-key-groups-2024

RFK Jr.’s Popularity Among Black Voters Ticks Up Post-VP Pick


"Robert F Kennedy Jr took a big step forward in his independent presidential campaign for 2024, introducing Silicon Valley entrepeneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate ... the share of Black voters with a favorable view of Kennedy increased from 38% to 51% in the surveys conducted before and after he announced Shanahan as his VP pick on March 26. The share of Black voters with unfavorable views of him ticked fown from 31% to 24%."

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https://www.kennedy24.com/west-des-moines-assembly

Kennedy is trying to make ballot access in Iowa in one day. If he gets 500 people to attend an assembly and then sign a form attesting that they were there, then he makes the ballot

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https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_access_idaho

Kennedy has acquired the signatures for Idaho. His campaign reports over 2000 signatures, exceeding the 1000 requirement

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There is confusion or misinformation about Kennedy's political bent. Democrats scream "ANTI-VAX" repeatedly to claim that RFK Jr is a Ted Cruz Republican. Republicans point to RFK Jr's enviromentalism and other positions to claim he is a Bernie Sanders Democrat.

Kennedy's site details many of his plans and positions : https://www.kennedy24.com/

Below is a summary taken from his campaign site. The overall truth is that RFK Jr is left-leaning. He is not a hard-left Bernie Sanders / Liz Warren liberal, but he is not a Republican at all.

 He may be comparable to Mayor Bloomberg in terms of mixing liberal views with a few conservative views sprinkled


Democratic policies / ideas:

- $15 minimum wage
- Support unions; criminally charge corporations that try to break up unions
- Give federal tax deduction for union dues
- Offer free childcare
- Vastly reduce military spending; divert military budget funding to infrastructure, education, healthcare
- Make student debt dischargeable in bankruptcy, remove interest rates on student loans, and allow refinancing
- Lower tuition costs by making schools responsible for defaults
- Offer government-backed mortgage loans to lower high interest rates on mortgages
- Incentivize transition to zero-waste cycles and clean energy sources
 - Protect wild lands by blocking the expansion of mining, logging, oil drilling
- No need for a 2,000-mile wall along the border
- Expand legal immigration
- Reduce / restrict government surveillance
- End War on drugs; give amnesty to nonviolent drug offenders
- Move prisons' focus from punishment to rehabilitation
- Incentive police to refrain from making unneccesary arrests; prioritize de-escalation and mediation training
- Set aside federal money to rebuild black infrastructure, such as schools and farms in black areas
- Establish low-cost or free addiction healing centers on organic farms, open for the whole public
- Expand government-funded programs for youths, such as job training and social service
- Free passport cards for any and all U.S. citizens, ensuring all citizens have government-ID
-  Protect Native American land and sacred sites and restore any land that has been taken illegally
- Break up "too-big-to-fail" banks and monopolies
- Promise to bail out homeowners, debtors, and small businesses if crisis occurs
- Promote alternative and holistic therapies to reduce health-care cost
- Refuse to reduce any veteran benefits
-  Redesign Peace Corps to function as job training college alternative: offer 4-yr program with benefits akin to military

BiPartisan:

- Secure border and halt illegal immigration
- More funding for immigration courts and border agencies
- Reverse chronic disease epidemic
- Promote government transparency, prosecute corruption, rein in lobbyists
- Dismantle censorship-industrial complex in the Big Tech companies
- Never weaponize the law against political opponent, nor hold politicians above the law
- End school to prison pipeline
- Establish a Veterans' Council in President Executive Office to address veteran issue


Republican policies / ideas

- Limit trade deals to stop low-wage countries from getting American jobs
- Reduce foreign aid (e.g. Ukraine), end proxy wars, and reduce American  military presence abroad
- Biden admin has failed USA on border security; they dismantled technology like motion sensors at border
- Ensure Covid-era lockdowns never happen again
- Vaccine skeptism
- Promote trade schools over 4-year college

[Redban]

West’s campaign will not go anywhere, but his support will go to Stein and RFK Jr, not Biden. So Biden supporters will not be able to celebrate

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Kennedy claims to have made the ballot in IA in one day. Signature requirement is 3,500. But there is a route to ballot access by getting 500 people (at least 1 person from 25 different counties) to appear at some assembly. They all have to sign an attestation that they were present

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1779937850336948610

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Soooooo many Biden voters are jumping ship to vote for this guys, it's over for Biden bros, time to pack it up.

The Biden voters will be drawn to his environmentalism, support for reparations, and support for criminal justice + prison reform

It’s on RFK’s site. His plan is to put aside federal money to give to black communities to help make up for years of racism: that  plan is reparations. Liberals will jump all over that plan

When all Biden supporters can do is try to frame RFK Jr as a one-issue candidate (scream vaccines until the end of time), then you know they are panicking

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Kennedy’s PAC reported that they got the signatures for Michigan some time ago. I think this new development is that he’s getting access in Michigan via the Natural Law Party. Presumably, the process may be quicker or simpler  if he’s on the ballot because of this party?

The DNC had been filing complaints  that the signatures acquired by RFK Jr’s super PAC are invalid , so I wonder if kennedy’s team is no longer relying on the signatures acquired by the super PAC

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RFK Jr.'s campaign says they have gathered enough signatures to get on the ballot in Texas. Texas requires 130,000 signatures for independent candidacies and his campaign says they have over 200,000.

I don't see this news on his campaign website. I googled "RFK jr Texas," and I don't see anything

is there a source?

if true though, that is big. 130k signatures is a lot by itself, but he wasn't permitted to get signatures from the 3-4 million who voted in the GOP / DEM primaries. It would also mean he collected the signatures with more than 2 weeks to spare, as deadline for Texas is May 13

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Kennedy says that he will make a "major announcement" on May 1st in NYC at 1PM ET. Rumors suggest he'll announce that he reached the signature threshold in 3 more states, including Texas

He claims to have over 20k signatures in NY. The requirement is 45k, with a full month to go. So he should have a good surplus for when signatures get disqualified. He claims he'll hit 90k

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Kennedy at his speech today claims he has the signatures for NY, but he wants at least double the 45k requirement (to have a cushion in case signatures get DQ'd)

https://twitter.com/AmValues2024/status/1785720345447559219

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So I think his 1PM speech is over ... he had claimed he had major announcement, rumored to be an announcement that he made the ballot in Texas and two other states.

Instead, his major announcement turns out to be a challenge for Biden to take a "no-spoiler" pledge. His suggestion is that both he and Biden commission a poll in mid-October, and whomever performs weaker against Trump head-to-head must drop out.

I think this "major announcement" is a letdown. Nothing is wrong with coming out with this "no-pledge" idea (which Biden would never agree to anyways), but I feel he shouldn't have hyped up the event as "major announcement" for it

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Trump is raising the attacks on Kennedy

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Kennedy makes the ballot in Delaware after the Independent Party of Delaware has nominated him

Although sources have reported that Kennedy got the signatures for Texas, the Kennedy campaign hasn't announced it

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_access_delaware

"The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is officially on the ballot in four states — Utah, Michigan, California, and now Delaware. The campaign has collected enough signatures for ballot access in seven other states — New Hampshire, Nevada, Hawaii, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, and Iowa."

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Kennedy campaign announces that they have the signatures for Ohio

They have the signatures for states adding to 141 electoral votes, so they're halfway to making the ballot for 270 electoral votes

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_signatures_ballot_access_ohio