How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better)

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Georgia, Arizona, Utah, and North Carolina are safer with Cruz than with Trump. Cruz is, as you say, also a smart individual who gives great speeches and interviews (ie no gaffes).

However, Cruz does not put PA in-play because he doesnt have Trump's especial support among blue-collars. For this same reason, Ohio becomes even harder for Cruz than it is for Trump.

Thus, Cruz's pathway to 270 is quite narrow, as he would probably need Virginia or Wisconsin to stand a chance; and I dont like his odds in those states.

As bad as Trump is doing right now, I'll take my chances with him over Cruz nonetheless.

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Cruz would be just about as toxic to college-educated whites as Trump, and with considerably less appeal to working class whites. Maybe he'd be doing slightly better with Hispanics or blacks, but I doubt it. So I'm not really sure where the improvement would come from here.

Cruz is actually to the right of Donald Trump on illegal immigration (and that's saying a lot), so I doubt Cruz outperforms Trump with Hispanics. Regarding blacks, they will always vote 90% for the Democrat.

Blue-collars didn't support Cruz as much as they supported Trump, and evangelicals (Cruz's biggest strength) are already supporting Trump at massively high levels. Therefore, the only group for Cruz to improve over Trump is, as you say, college educated whites; and I've seen no evidence that he would do better with this group.

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Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.

North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/

[Redban]

Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.

North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/

Ted Cruz has a much more consistent record in favor of socially conservative values than Donald Trump. For example, Trump was pro-choice up until a few years ago, has a mixed record on same-sex marriage, only offered lukewarm support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and is opposed to laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. On the other hand, Cruz has been a strong opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage since he first entered into politics, strongly supported the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and strongly supports laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. As a result, I feel that Cruz would have gotten the support of about 80-85% of evangelical voters if he was the Republican nominee as opposed to the 78% of evangelical voters who support Trump.

Bush in 2004 won 79% of evangelicals, the highest in recent memory. You really think that Cruz, in a less favorable environment, will beat his total by so much? The issues you've mentioned (e.g. abortion and gay rights) were more prominent in 2004 than now too.

Even if you concede that Cruz gets a record-shattering 80-85% (which is doubtful), that increase still won't be enough to put Wisconsin and Colorado in-play.