Trump with a strong Kasich showing.
Agreed. There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.
This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...
Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.
Its not a matter of Catholic v Protestant. I think its more 'wealthy suburban' (who, interestingly are heavily Jewish in Westchester) vs more exburban voters and Republicans in heavily democratic areas to the south of the county.
A little bit, but Trump does well with the highly educated/higher income suburbanites, particularly when they are Catholic, so I think that trend will show up a great deal more. (Are the suburban Jews really Republicans anyway? I know the Brooklyn ones are, but in NJ, they seem pretty D)
Armonk/Scarsdale/Pelham are Jewish, some I would assume are republicans, but it's besides the point. I don't think there are enough 'typical' Kasich voters to make it close: Trump should win running away.