Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[The Free North]

Time to call Florida. Build that wall with Cuba!

They can't do that until the polls in the panhandle close.

[The Free North]

FOX just announced that there will be a call right at 6:30 (CT).

Kasich in OH?

[The Free North]

NC may be surprisingly close here....

Only one too close to call.

[The Free North]

Kasich wins OH based on these numbers

He's winning Republicans/Dems/Independents


5-10% win for him.

[The Free North]

AP called NC for Trump?

[The Free North]

Rubio might not get over 3% in Ohio.

[The Free North]

Trump's margin, like in LA, has shrunk massively in NC.


But unlike LA, he did not start the night up 20 points.

Might be in trouble, a Cruz win in NC would be a big upset.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/709909336756084736

[The Free North]

What's the chance that Cruz wins NC? I ask because I do not know enough about NC politics and political geography to ascertain whether he can pull off an upset.

Slim I would guess, but not impossible given Trump's poor showing on E-day.

Overall the delegates will probably be pretty evenly split.

[The Free North]

Trump supporter crashing the Kasich speech?

Like they did with Rubio?

What a joke.

[The Free North]

Kasich is leading with all three delegates in CD 7 with 46% in (Chicago Loop dominates the GOP vote here).

Kasich is leading one delegate in CD 9 with 47% in and has another delegate in fourth a close race for third place (north and northwest Cook suburbs primarily).

Trump may end up sweeping in IL despite the congressional district rules.


Wonder how strongly Cruz runs downstate...that may detract a bit from The Don.

[The Free North]

Trump may only win about half of the CDs in IL based on these results

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IL_Delegates_0315.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Both Kasich and Cruz take away from him.

[The Free North]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

[The Free North]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

[The Free North]

Practically does Trump even have to get 1237 to win on the first ballot. There will be a number of unpledged delegates from various places going to the convention. I don't know how many but if he is over 1150 could they be enough to give him a win anyway?

Well the only candidate with any delegates is Rubio and his supporters are probably not going to back Trump if Cruz and Kasich are still in the race. The point being, it probably hurts him rather than helps him.

[The Free North]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

He still gets some delegates in 6 of those other 8 CDs as it currently stand. He's only shut out in IL-7 and IL-18. I have Trump with 53 of 69 IL delegates.

Which is still shy of what he needs.

[The Free North]

For those wondering what happens to Rubio's delegates

This is from 538...yikes

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

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[The Free North]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

I'm not so sure.  Trump is going to WTA/WTM the heck out of the remaining NE states and probably AZ and CA as well, particularly if Kasich fades away.

Trump will play very will in WV, PA, and NY.

However, he will struggle in MD/DE/NJ/CT/RI. Kasich is likely to do very well in those states and even if he doesnt win outright, the delegate split will really hurt Trump and the WTA states are fairly evenly distributed amongst Trump's strengths/weaknesses.

[The Free North]

NJ is one of his top 3 states, RI is up there too. Look at MA. Trump is not weak in the northeast.

Disagree. Trump does not play well in the subruban northeast. Sure there are some exburbs in NJ that he will clean up in, but he is not going to win the NYC suburbs, he is not going to win the Philadelphia suburbs, or the BWI suburbs. I think he will probably sweep in PA/WV/NY, but along the coast, I don't see it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html


Look at the Mass suburbs, he lost them quite decisively, and imagine the Rubio + Kasich vote combined and larger.

[The Free North]

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LOL!

I believe an arab sounding delegate got beat by 2 Cruz delegates when the other 2 Trump candidates won quite easily.

I closed the tab so I dont remember which CD it was, someone can double check.

[The Free North]

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.