Anna Komnene
Siren
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,653
|
 |
« on: August 01, 2017, 07:06:47 AM » |
|
If you actually dig into the numbers, this poll makes some sense, not as a prediction of results but as an expression of the current state of the race.
31% definitely Sherrod Brown
14% probably Sherrod Brown
8% undecided but leaning Brown
13% truly and totally undecided
Brown is a two term Senator who's been around Ohio politics for four decade, he has a pretty big national profile for a Senator, and the current political environment for congressional Republicans is terrible. It's not really surprising that Brown would have stickier support than Mandel 15 months before the election, but even with that sticky support, only 45% are likely Brown voters, with the rest being undecideds and leaners. That doesn't mean Mandel is going to lose by 19 points. He's likely to pick up a good portion of the "truly undecided" voters as people eventually coalesce around the parties in the campaign, but he will need the national environment to improve and he'll have his work cut out for him in the campaign, especially since he needs to convince people why they should vote for him in 2018 when they already voted against him in 2012. So I think for a poll 15 months out, it at least says a few things about how things are going right now.
|
