TX-University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Trump +8

[Anna Komnene]

Hillary Clinton is really dumb is she thinks she can win here.

Clinton will not spend a dime here unless a win is a foregone conclusion and she goes full-on "50 state."

I have TX flipping at a 15-point national victory.  Something like 52-37-10-2.  I would put the probability of that kind of baroque result at about 1%, but the map would look like this:

Clinton 461
Trump 77

I could see most of those happening in Hillary's dream landslide, but South Carolina and Mississippi?  There's no way the abysmal D organization in those states could ever beat Trump.

[Anna Komnene]

I could see most of those happening in Hillary's dream landslide, but South Carolina and Mississippi?  There's no way the abysmal D organization in those states could ever beat Trump.

Those states are more liable to flip than Texas because they were closer in 2012 than Texas and Mississippi is closer than Texas.

They might be closer, but I don't think that the elections being slightly closer necessarily means there's a better chance of that state flipping.  In order for the state to flip, there has to be some reasonable explanation for why voters that picked one party might now pick a different party.  I think Texas is unlikely, but at least there's an argument for it like some people mentioned.  I don't see where the potential for flipping is in SC and MS.