SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Benj]

I think this gives the Democrats a free pass to let Anthony Weiner back into public office.

Ew. Why would we want to?

[Benj]

If ECB wins, there will be a tidy cluster of 3 Romney-voting districts in the Southern Atlantic seaboard that have Democratic representatives--Barrow, ECB, and McInyre.

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

This district is very different from the other two. Much wealthier, much more urban and much whiter.

[Benj]

Ah, must have been looking at pre-redistricting numbers for NC-07. Still a much poorer and more rural district, though.

[Benj]

In RRH's defense, their LA-03 poll was 51-33 Boustany, which lined up quite nicely with the result.

Comparing a Republican website's poll in an RvR race to one in a DvR race is obviously unhelpful.

[Benj]

With Berkley in, Sanford up 51.9-47.5

Only a small bit of Berkeley. Now up to 9% in Berkeley, 2% overall (including 9% of Berkeley and the one precinct in Colleton, nothing elsewhere), and Sanford up 55-44.

[Benj]

Votes coming in a bit faster now. ECB leads the first batch from Dorchester County, but Sanford gains ground a bit as more of Berkeley comes in (both in Berkeley and overall). Still silence from Beaufort County, which is likely to be very important as neither campaign paid it much attention.