Eastleigh By-Election (user search)
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Author Topic: Eastleigh By-Election  (Read 21287 times)
Benj
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Posts: 979


« on: February 22, 2013, 07:32:00 PM »

33%'s not so bad for the Lib Dems. Just holding on is a good result, and they only got 35% in 1997. Seems like Labour should be trying harder; had they done things right, they should have been competitive here with the LDs and Conservatives about even. 28% in the 1994 by-election would put them tied for second at the moment and within striking distance. UKIP obviously eating into the Conservative vote considerably, and preventing them from taking the seat from the LDs. If another big UKIP vote actually materializes in a competitive by-election, it should be very worrying for the Conservatives (especially in LD-Con marginals, but also in many Lab-Con marginals).
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Benj
Jr. Member
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Posts: 979


« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2013, 09:23:36 PM »

LD: 13,342
UKIP: 11,571
Con: 10,559
Lab: 4,088
Ind: 768
Health: 392
Crumpet: 235
Christian: 163
Loony: 136
Peace: 128
Elvis: 72
EngDem: 70
Trade Union: 62
Wessex: 30
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Benj
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Posts: 979


« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2013, 10:08:27 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2013, 10:14:35 PM by Benj »

Obviously the more significant candidates there are, the lower the percentage vote needed to win a first past the post election. I seem to recall that there were results in Papua New Guinea where single member, first past the post seats were won with as little as about 5% of the vote.

In the UK there have been general election results, where the winning candidate had a lower percentage vote than in the Eastleigh by-election; but probably not in England. Belfast North in the 1979 general election, is the lowest I have found in a quick and superficial search (27.6% according to F.W.S. Craig).

Norwich South and it's not to find one in the Scottish results through the years.

Brighton Pavilion and Oldham East and Saddleworth in 2010 alone as well in England. And Argyll and Bute in Scotland in 2010 as well.

By my count, there have been 5 such results in England total (the 3 in 2010 and 2 in 1922, in Portsmouth Central and East Ham North). There have also been 7 such results scattered through the years in Scotland, 2 in Wales, and 3 in Northern Ireland.
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