Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[windjammer]

I know this is very unlikely but I would laugh so hard if the dems manage to pull it off.

[windjammer]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up here... things always seem to look good for the Democrats in Wisconsin and then it just all goes wrong.

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

I don't think they would be successful.

[windjammer]

Any leaks/rumors?

[windjammer]

Looks like the republican establishment masterfully managed an election again!

[windjammer]

Who is this "moderate" republican?

[windjammer]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

[windjammer]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

[windjammer]

I honestly don't think this is in the bag as many people think. I think it's a lean dem race but Kelly Can definitely win this.

[windjammer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

Who is the non-awful candidate the GOP is going to nominate in 2024? The guy facing 34 felony counts? Who caused this abortion disaster with his SCOTUS appointments in the first place?

Well yes, as things stand right now Trump probably does similarly to what McCain in 2008 did.

But even then I’m not sure that these legal troubles help Trump in the long term, even in a GOP primary. But that’s a topic for a different story.

The GOP constantly underperforms massively with the abortion issue.

It's not the only election showing that

[windjammer]

I don't understand why people are terrified about this supermajority.

The supreme court would just have to rule they lack this impeachment power as this is a gerrymandered chamber and we're safe!

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1686750709931225088?s=46

I don’t see how any fairly drawn map would get Dems to majorities outside of a 2018 type year (that might not even do it), given how bad geography is for Dems here, but it should at least guarantee that Republicans don’t get a supermajority.  

under a fair map Democrats could easily get close to a majority in both chambers.

In most years, the senate would be around 19R-14D and the Assembly around 55R-44D.

I think the special redistricting master going to be appointed is going to apply the proportionality rule

[windjammer]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

[windjammer]

Out of curiosity, the previous conservative majority in the WI Supreme Court really almost overturned the presidential results?

3 of the 4 conservatives would have taken the case, but the former Chief Justice claims it just would have been to set the rules moving forward, but who knows.

The three dissenting conservative justices, led by Chief Justice Patience Roggensack, said the court should have decided whether votes should have counted in each of the four categories, and clarified the law for future elections.

“A significant portion of the public does not believe that the November 3, 2020, presidential election was fairly conducted,” Roggensack wrote. “Once again, four justices on this court cannot be bothered with addressing what the statutes require to assure that absentee ballots are lawfully cast.”

Source

Following up on this, looking at their dissents, Annette Ziegler (now the Chief Justice until Spring 2025) and Rebecca Bradley would have probably thrown out votes to give Trump the win.

Patience Roggensack has always striken me as a mainstream conservative who got significantly more conservative after getting embroiled into this hyper polarized situation

[windjammer]

Wisconsin republicans aren't going to do that not because they are pro democracy but simply because it would be pointless as Evers could simply reappoint her lol.

[windjammer]

The NYtime's article said that the gop has decided to remove her from office.


I suppose it's overdramatic right?

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't think they are going to try to impeach her.

They don't have the votes for it and they cannot let this trial last for ever as one of the three republican judges would likely side with the democrats to force the senate trial to happen.

[windjammer]

So dems are going to gain 2 seats?