Likely next US districts after 2020 (user search)
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  Likely next US districts after 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Likely next US districts after 2020  (Read 9267 times)
windjammer
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« on: December 03, 2016, 02:36:12 PM »



So apparently:
- OH , MI, MN, RI, WV, IL, PA, AL and NY are going to lose 1 seat
-AZ, OR, CO, NC are going to win 1 seat seat
- FL 2 seats
- TX 3 seats


Anyone interested of drawing potential new maps for that? (or democratic or republican gerrymanders if you want to do so).
I truly wonder if republicans would be able to reduce even more the number of democratic seats in the already republican gerrymandered maps.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 02:48:00 PM »

Regarding Ohio, https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cy2BXjQWIAEuYAV.jpg
The results with a neutral map, Clinton would still have won 6 seats.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2016, 12:33:44 PM »

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

The Virginia map is 7-4 currently,  I really don't think even that is very sustainable going into 2020 with the way VA-10 is going (and Loudon County's growth and trend).   The most likely map will be 6R-5D IMO.   The three NOVA districts will get sucked more into the NOVA area and lose their Republican exurbs.   VA-1 might possibly move Dem a little, but not enough to really matter.

Once district results in NC are available we'll know more about that state.

Also, it looks like VA results by state senate district were just released.  Counting only Election Day ballots, Clinton has won 22 of the 40 districts, and by at least 6% in 21 of them.  Trump is barely up by <500 votes in SD-07 in the Norfolk area.  Given that absentee ballots are uniformly more D than countywide results in VA, it's quite likely Clinton won 23 districts.  She won the seat Dems would need to tie the chamber by 13%.  If VA Dems flip 2 seats and get to 21 in 2019, they are assured of a say in the next congressional redistricting.  If they flip one seat to tie the chamber and hold the LG office, they would also be assured of a say in the next redistricting.
Where did you find these results?
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windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2017, 03:17:26 PM »

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.
Ohio has a bipartisan commission for state legislature districts, not for congressional districts.
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