2018 Senate Rankings

[windjammer]

Including AL, my map at this point:

If the election were held today, Democrats would probably win all the green states except maybe Indiana, but it's still early.

Again, there is no doubt whatsoever that Tester, Brown and Manchin would win if the election were held today, but I still think there is at least a path for the GOP in those states (WV in particular, OH and especially MT will be tricky). I'll wait for more polling before I move any of those states to Lean or Likely D.

Why do you believe MS is lean rep?

Why did you move Mccaskill to toss up? It's strange considering it has been a year you have been saying she's doa

[windjammer]

TN Volunteer,
Regarding Donnelly, I think he's a better fit than Mccaskill for his state. I mean, he's pro life for example. Even if Mccaskill excites more the base than Donnelly, this is a midterm under a republican president heavily despised by the democrats. Trump will excite the base.
That's why I believe that Donnelly is more likely to win than Mccaskill.

[windjammer]

TN Volunteer,
Regarding Donnelly, I think he's a better fit than Mccaskill for his state. I mean, he's pro life for example. Even if Mccaskill excites more the base than Donnelly, this is a midterm under a republican president heavily despised by the democrats. Trump will excite the base.
That's why I believe that Donnelly is more likely to win than Mccaskill.

McCaskill is a known entity in her state. She's been elected statewide 5 times now, last time very comfortably, while Donnelly was an accidental Senator who barely won. McCaskill overperformed the polls, while Donnelly scraped by on election day.

Donnelly managed to be reelected in the 2nd most conversative democrat voting Obamacare. The polls before the Murdock accident was giving a very tight race. What Murdock said was far less horrible than the Akin gaffe.

[windjammer]

MS-Special election is a Tossup and represented by AL on the map.

TX: Likely R -> Lean R

Safe D (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): CA, WA, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI, ME

Likely D (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip (except NV, which is a D pickup), but there is at least a path for a Republican to win statewide): NV, WI, MI, PA, MN (special)

Lean D (one party has a slight advantage): AZ, MT, OH, FL, ND

Tossup (these states could go either way): IN, MO, WV, MS (Special)

Lean R (one party has a slight advantage): MS (Regular), TN, TX

Likely R (these states are currently not competitive and extremely unlikely to flip, but there is at least a path for a Democrat/Independent to win statewide): NE

Safe R (not a chance this seat flips, regardless of what may happen): WY, UT

Why are you so optimistic about the dem chances in both MS senate elections?

[windjammer]

My most recent updated ratings.

Only differences are that WV has moved from Tossup to Lean D(I had it at Tossup because I didn't know how the primary would go), I remembered Nebraska this time, and I used 270towin instead of Atlas because (unpopular opinion alert)it looks much better, lol.

This is exactly my map!

[windjammer]

So much overreaction about North Dakota it's ridoculous

[windjammer]

So much overreaction about North Dakota it's ridoculous

Tossup is a fair rating

Oh I agree, but nothing has changed about this race during the last 6 months.

[windjammer]

My ratings, I don't make the "likely" ratings. A "tilt" rating means this race is a toss up for me but how I believe it will end.

Lean Dem: Arizona (D pick up), Montana, Nevada (D pick up), West Virginia
Tilt Dem: Florida, Indiana, Missouri
Tilt Rep: North Dakota (R pick up)
Lean Rep: Tennessee, Texas

Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota could go either way, from 4 dem victories to 4 rep victories but I believe right now Nelson, Donnelly and Mccaskill will prevail while Heitkamp will lose. So that would end up in a 50-50 tie. But again, all of them could go either way. So it could go from 53R-47D to 51D-49R.

Then the "lean": I believe Sinema and Rosen are clearly favored. Maybe some polls may find a closer race but both should win by more than 5 points. Same for Tester and Manchin, they would probably win by more than 5 points. And same for Blackburn and Cruz. An another outcome is possible but unlikely. It would need either Trump improving his job approval (around -5) for Manchin and Tester to lose or either Trump toppling the -20 in order to have Bredesen and Beto O'rourke to win.  But an important event needs to happen: a massive Trump victory in foreign affairs, a Trump massive scandal...

But yes, I stand with my 50R-50D prediction.