(Very) early 2020 Senate predictions.

[windjammer]

Assuming Collins runs for reelection, Udall wins the NM gubernational election, Warner and Cochran retire:
Toss up: NC, CO
Lean Dem: VA
Lean rep: IA
Likely rep : MS, TX, GA, MT, AK
Likely dem: NM

[windjammer]

wow, there will be so few competitive seats

[windjammer]

TheSaint250, who are the Democratic candidates in Montana and Alaska in your scenario? Also, I agree with PNM that the Maine race could very well be a ND-SEN 2012 redux or so if Republicans play their cards right. But it would be tough for sure.

Not sure why anyone would rate CO a Tossup, given the tendency of blue states to oust Republican Senators. There was basically no split-ticket voting in Democratic states in 2016, plus someone like Hickenlooper might even do better than the Democratic presidential candidate there IMO.

I don't have any specific candidates in Montana and Alaska. I just think that without anyone extremely notable (and there doesn't seem to be something like that occurring; of course, we are 3 years away), Daines and Sullivan aren't in real danger of losing their seats.  

In regards to CO, it's too early to say for sure which way the state will swing in regards to the Senate, but you certainly have a point about the split-ticket voting.  Gardner, though, doesn't seem to be in such trouble politically or as well-known to an annoying level nationally to call the race lean D just yet.  If Hickenlooper ran, he would most likely beat Gardner barring a scandal or massive GOP wave.  Also, Gardner's approval ratings, while not amazing, are relatively average.

I believe of the 8 Republican Senators (before Daines) who represented Montana since 1890, 7 lost reelection after one term (except Burns, who I believe was the only Republican ever to serve two terms). Daines could easily be no. 8, and I hope Republicans don't take this race for granted. MT Democrats have a strong bench and ground game, and the state is pretty Democratic-friendly down ballot. This race is a pure Tossup.

Granted, Alaska is a wildcard. Someone like Begich or Walker would probably make this a Tossup, but I'm not entirely sure. Alaska likes competitive Senate races.

The thing about Gardner's approval ratings is that they will crater once the campaign begins and the Democrats start pouring money into the race. I like him, but he is way to the right of his state and will basically have little to zero crossover appeal on election day.

@Windjammer: This may appear to be the case right now, but I think by election day Democrats will have fielded strong candidates in most of these "red" states.

Oh I quite agree with you on that. Democrats are quite good for recruiting wave insurance candiates, but it would need a wave for democrats to win something else than NC or CO. And I don't expect 2020 to be a democratic wave at all.