By the way,
The most likely path to senate majority for democrats is to pick up 3 seats, how in my view they do that:
- Holding all their seats: while I now feel much more confident for states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, there are 4 seats that will start as toss ups: Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and Montana. So not losing a single seat among the 4 will be a difficult thing to make but I'm confident if things go terrible for republicans they could hold them all.
- Picking up Nevada: shouldn't be too difficult honestly.
-Picking up Arizona: should be relatively difficult but I'm confident Flake will have some problems with primary challenge to damage him, so this definitely a pick up possibility.
- So now, let's find the third pick up: who are the other seats being held by republicans:
x Tennessee: NO WAY
x Nebraska: NO WAY
x Wyoming: the only possible way would be Barrasso to retire and Cheney running for this seat and even that she would be extremely favoured: NO WAY
x Mississippi: Hillary seriously underperformed with blacks and the whites than Obama, considering that there are still some democrats alive in MS: Jim Hood, Brandon Presley. I expect MS democrats to file a decent candidate anyway. So I guess this is possible a pick up but obviously highly unlikely: Likely Rep/ NO WAY
x Texas: Trump's favoral ratings will be extremely abysmal with Texas residents. Ted Cruz is going to probably be damaged by a primary challenge or by his terrible relations with Trump. And democrats always compete in Texas even when they shouldnt (TX gub 2014 for example lol), so I expect this election to attract money and attention: Likely Rep
x Utah: it may sound crazy but this will likely be an open seat/incumbent beaten seat. Mormons, well, how to say that, have TERRIBLE RELATIONSHIP with Trump and if there is a state where Trump could make Republican's lives terrible downballot, this is this state. Mormons do often split their ballot downballot, I'm thinking about Jim Matheson, so if he could run or Jon Hunstman as an indy, things could get interesting: Likely Rep/ Lean Rep (with Matheson or Hunstman)
So, their best path for democrats to pick up the senate right now is:
1) Nevada
2) Arizona
3) Utah
Well, things will be extremely difficult lol. But at least a path exists so we political nerds will have interest to at least follow the 2018 senate election
