^ But its not like the area is getting any friendlier and the GOP bench has grown since then.
Maybe but Warner still carried the district by the same margin at Virginia level in 2008. It would have been obviously close, but Appalachia seems to be a region that is really elastic!
I'd be more optimistic if 2013 went better. McAuliffe/Northam/Herring did just as bad (or worse in some counties) than Obama. The LG's race especially; 10 years ago, I don't see how a Democrat like Northam would lose most of these counties by 30+ points to a black preacher.
I'd be shocked if Warner carries this district again.
Remember Warner has an important Appalachia base! See his senate against Warner, see his gubernational races in 2001, see his 2008 senate race. Even if I believe his support among Appalachians will a bit go down, he will still massively overperform Mcauliffe/Northam/Obama.
And for the black preacher, it doesn't surprise me at all that he carried Appalachia. Northam was seen as a social liberal moderate fiscally, whereas the rep candidate concentrated his efforts on social issues!
