LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[windjammer]

oh yeeeeeah, please Maness, hit Cassidy by the right!

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I suppose she has a good reason. But honestly, this vote was made 3 years ago, people forget, look Walker in Wisconsin.

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Cassidy signed Mark Meadow's letter to Cantor and Boehner. He's now one of 80 gop lawmakers urging to defund obamacare.

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http://theadvocate.com/columnists/jamesgill/6902660-123/james-gill-cassidy-caught-on


Oh yeaaah, I understand now why Landrieu strongly shows her support for Obamacare!

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Democrats need a government shutdown in order to win seats!

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Whoah, hold the phone! Though Brenstetter is taking a pass, Hagan still gets some horrible news today:

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Is he strong as a challenger? Does the democratic base like Hagan?

[windjammer]

I must have missed this poll from High Point University out a few weeks ago. They didn't do head-to-heads, but they had approval ratings. I think the undecideds are a bit high, but Hagan is the most popular politician of those they asked about:

Obama- 39/52
McCrory- 39/42
Hagan- 40/28
Burr- 36/25

A serious poll?

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No way dems are competitive in these districts?

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Honestly, I have the feeling Bannon will be the nominee, though I'm not sure he would be worse than Tillis.

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Surprise! Rep. Mark Meadows' obnoxious ideological crusades are negatively impacting his district:

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No way this district becomes competitive I guess?

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No, she isn't stupid, healthcare won't just be an issue again. We're not in 2010.

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Miles, would you the PVI for NC state senate and state house, and LA  state senate and state house please?

[windjammer]

Miles, would you the PVI for NC state senate and state house, and LA  state senate and state house please?

DKE has Pres-by-Legislative District for NC.

Thank you Miles!

[windjammer]

Actual PVIs for the NC State Senate.

Districts map:



The color scheme may get a bit confusing, but the numbering generally runs east to west.

PVIs:

Thank you Miles, it's depressing. Other note, I think the 33th district is R+20 instead of D+20 according tp 2012 Statewide result!

[windjammer]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

[windjammer]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

Yeah, though Vitter will appoint the placeholder if he wins the Mansion. Curious to see which Pubs will run for the open seat.

Steve Calise maybe?

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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/after-the-shutdown-republicans-sort-through-the-wreckage/

LA and NC now lean D for Sabato!

[windjammer]

I'd like Landrieu/Scalise because they would be a Catholic, New Orleans-centric delegation that, holsitically, would represent the state's ideology well.

They already have a good working relationship. Landrieu and Vitter kinda hate eachother XD

Some clash?

[windjammer]

Cassidy is useless. An another Romney on health care. Maybe he's being underestimated, but some people are underestimating Landrieu too.

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1) Rothenberg
Considering this race as a "pure toss up" (and not even tilt dem) is clearly premature. Even if Cassidy is strong, he has to prove that! So this race should be rated "lean democratic" or "tilt democratic" like Cook did, with an important probability to change this rating!

2) The run-off
Again, some people underestimate her prospect of victory. I agree with you that if LA is the decisive state, she would be in trouble. But except this scenario, a run-off won't according to me hurt her.
I suppose in the USA or in Canada, run-off aren't a tradition, but I can tell you in the 2nd round, the 1st candidate gets a boost.
Here are some example:
a) 1995 French Presidential election:
1st round: Leftwing parties: 41% Rightwing parties: 59%
But Jospin got 47.5%.

b) And in Louisiana:
2002 senate race: 1st rounds: Pubs: 51% Dem: 48% (1st candidate: Landrieu)
And 2nd round: Landrieu got 51.5% of the vote.
2003 gubernational senate race: Pubs: 39% Dems: 61% (Best performance: Jindal)
And Bianco was just elected with 52% of the vote.



The runoff always gave a boost for the candidate who made the best performance. That's why the UMP wanted to have just one rightwing list in 2010 for the "Régionales" because they wanted to have the boost.
So except if LA is the decisive state, some people on this forum underestimate her chances of being reelected if there would be a runoff. She wouldn't lose votes with a "lower black turnout", she would win with a comfortable margin, (and weaker Cassidy's performance would be, better would be her score in a run off). So if there's  a runoff, except in case of LA=decisive state, this runoff wouldn't be closed if Landrieu leads Cassidy in the first round by a big margin, she would probably be comfortably reelected with this margin: 54-46.

[windjammer]

I likes Jones though .

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I likes Jones though .

I thought you hated libertarians.

Yes obviously, I hate them. But him, it's different. He was one of the least conservative republican in the last congress. So, lesser evil when you look at this district?

But I continue to hate libertarians, don't worry about that .

[windjammer]

I would love to see Maness destroying Cassidy's campaign

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Well, I hope healthcare will be fixed...

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Oh yeah Greg Bannon!