Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[windjammer]

Seriously, if Corbett is defeated, what was the last time where an incumbent governor was defeated in PA?

[windjammer]

Is PA so difficult to poll seriously?

I mean, the last poll was made in February...

[windjammer]

Mike Fleck, the gay Republican who was defeated by a write-in challenger, will be running as a Democrat.

D+1

Not really

[windjammer]

And Obama only got 41% in 2008, a really conservative house district.

[windjammer]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

[windjammer]

Rassy says Wolf+20

Rick Santorum is already counting the days to November when he's finally not the biggest looooser anymore in Pennsylvania ...

Congrats, Phil !

I will defend Phil, he has never said "Corbett will win." He has said "Corbett can still recover". That's definitely not the same thing, and if the Dem nominee were Schwartzn Corbett would perform much better right now.


And seriously, Rassy lol, I don't buy it, 20 points, too big.

I meant that Phil can be happy if Corbett loses by a bigger margin than Santorum ...

Aaaaaaaaaaaaah, sorry Tender Branson

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

They need to gain 2 seats... And yep, there is a dem seat that will go republican, but they have other opportunities.


Yep, they have an advantage, but when you have an incumbent governor who risks to be trounced, that doesn't help them at all.

What you're saying is that PA democrats WON'T win the PA senate.
Me, I believe that's a possibility because they have some opportunities, especially with a badly unpopular governor. 

[windjammer]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

And for not handing him some legislative victories.

I doubt if either house will flip.

Normally, the senate and the house shouldn't flip,
But seriously, if it's a 20 point margin...

No, it won't happen.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191932.25.msg4152128#msg4152128
Flipping the PA senate has always been a possibility, especially because they just need 2 pick ups.

That's not true; they need at least 3 pick ups because Democrats don't even have a candidate for District 38, so Republicans have automatically picked up a district, and there are 2 other tough defences for Democrats. Even in your thread you say Republicans are likely to keep the senate!

They need to gain 2 seats... And yep, there is a dem seat that will go republican, but they have other opportunities.

That means they need to gain 3 seats because Democrats DON'T HAVE A CANDIDATE FOR ONE OF THE SEATS THEY HOLD (38).

I think coattails are overestimated. Remember even Chris Christie's thumping win didn't help Republicans at all in the state legislature.

So overall, they have to gain 2 seats: they have 23 seats, they need to have 25 seats...

For the NJ, two reasons:
-The chambers were dem gerrymanders.
-And the NJ democrats weren't unpopular, Christie was popular. That's not the same thing this time for PA republicans, where the governor and his agenda is BADLY unpopular.


Flipping this chamber is a possibility, I haven't even said it was likely. But saying "they won't win", implying they have virtually no chance to pick up this chamber, is really a pro republican comment.

[windjammer]

You know, if the democrats pick up 3 seats but they lose 1 seat: overall they still have to win 2 seats, this is what I wanted to say, I know very well that a dem seat is already lost.

Considering you have basically 4 open seats (1 democrat and 3 republicans) that will probably be won by Wolf, these seats are definitely in play.

And then, there are 3 rep seats in lean D/swingy district, they would probably be safe without Corbett, but when you have an incumbent governor that is badly unpopular, his party will obviously suffer because of him. Is it enough to win one of these seats? Probably not, but that's a possibility.

As I said, flipping the PA senate is a possibility, this is not likely. But that's a possibility, so saying "Democrats won't win the chamber" is definitely overestimating Republicans' chances. The PA senate is in play, the republicans have an advantage, but this chamber is in play.



-------------------------
I have some problems with a state, but except that, it should be soon be available!

[windjammer]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

[windjammer]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

Tom Corbett is clearly bringing all of the Republicans down. Thankfully for Toomey, he won't be on the ballot with Corbett in 2016, so I don't find this very alarming.

No, this isn't really alarming for PA republicans. Toomey's chances will always be the same: in case of a republican year: he would be the favorite, in case of a neutral year: he would be slight favorite, and in case of a democratic year: he would lose.

But the poll just shows that some people have a bit overestimated the effect of Kanegate. That's all.

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

[windjammer]

Well, since Kanegate hasn't damaged anything, I hope Kane will run. She would be th strongest democratic candidate against Toomey!

Ok, enough trolling. It's one poll and her standing is definitely damaged within the party.

It wasn't the first poll that showed Kane leading Toomey Phil, or being neck and neck with him. And yep, Kanegate doesn't seem to have sunk her.

...it's the only one after the scandal and that's the point here. Don't be disingenuous.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016

You're right, but that hasn't changed a lot of things for Kane.
Even if some polls should poll this match up as well, Kanegate doesn't seem to have hurt her so much as some people could pretend on this thread.

[windjammer]

No recent news???

[windjammer]

Pennsylvania



SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
3   DEM   42
4   DEM   33
5   DEM   8
6   REP   2
7   DEM   18
8   DEM   37
9   REP   5
10   REP   -1
11   DEM   4
12   REP   -1
13   REP   -5
14   DEM   2
15   DEM   -2
16   REP   3
17   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
19   DEM   2
20   REP   -8
21   REP   -16
22   DEM   11
23   REP   -15
24   REP   -2
25   REP   -15
26   REP   2
27   REP   -12
28   REP   -10
29   REP   -9
30   REP   -20
31   REP   -13
32   DEM   -10
33   REP   -16
34   REP   -5
35   DEM   -10
36   REP   -16
37   DEM   -8
38   DEM   -5
39   REP   -14
40   REP   -1
41   REP   -16
42   DEM   13
43   DEM   20
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
46   DEM   -4
47   REP   -7
48   REP   -11
49   DEM   7
50   REP   -6


SD   INC   PVI
3   DEM   42
8   DEM   37
4   DEM   33
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
43   DEM   20
7   DEM   18
42   DEM   13
22   DEM   11
5   DEM   8
17   DEM   7
49   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
9   REP   5
11   DEM   4
16   REP   3
6   REP   2
14   DEM   2
19   DEM   2
26   REP   2
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
10   REP   -1
12   REP   -1
40   REP   -1
15   DEM   -2
24   REP   -2
46   DEM   -4
13   REP   -5
34   REP   -5
38   DEM   -5
50   REP   -6
47   REP   -7
20   REP   -8
37   DEM   -8
29   REP   -9
28   REP   -10
32   DEM   -10
35   DEM   -10
48   REP   -11
27   REP   -12
31   REP   -13
39   REP   -14
23   REP   -15
25   REP   -15
21   REP   -16
33   REP   -16
36   REP   -16
41   REP   -16
30   REP   -20
With this PVI, we understand how PA has been the only state to have a pro-choice republican and a pro life democrat. PA Republicans try to be competitive in the suburbs from Philadelphia. While PA democrats try to overperform West Pennsylvania.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_1986
This gubernational election just shows the contrast perfectly!
Only half of the seats are up for reelection in 2014 (2,4,6,….50)
32 and 38, two conservative seats hold by the democrats, will be open seats in 2014. The 38th seat will be probably a rep pick up. The 32th seat, hmmm, PA democrats are lining a good recruit, a state representative from a district with the same PVI than the 32th seat. It will be highly contested.
26, the incumbent republican is retiring. A D+2 district, so I guess PA democrats should be favored to pick up this seat.
The 50th district, a R+6 district and the republican is retiring. Republicans are favored to hold this seat, but I believe this “might” be a dem opportunity. This district is from West Pennsylvania and West Pennsylvania is historically dem I guess? So,… But seriously, the democrat would start as an underdog.
The 40th district: an open seat, a swingy district. This will be competitive.Scavello, the rep candidate, is from a swingy house seat and is definitely the favorite. But I guess democrats can pick up this seat, but it will need a dem wave.
SD6-SD12-SD16: And some rep  incumbents running for reelection in a toss up/lean D district, personally I think they will be reelected.
So, I guess Republicans are favored to keep the PA senate.  (I wouldn't say the same thing for the Governorship haha).

My earlier poll about the PA state senate .

[windjammer]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

And what did he say Phil? The PA state senate would stay republican or something like that I guess?

[windjammer]

Write-up on State Senate seats that might flip. The author points out that GOP-held seats 26, 40 and 6 that are at least tossups. I thought Democrats are on track to lose 32 though, which isn't mentioned.

...by a veteran Dem consultant. They featured a write up by a Republican yesterday that I purposely held back on posting.

And what did he say Phil? The PA state senate would stay republican or something like that I guess?

That we'd keep the in-play GOP seats and gain the two Dem seats.

Haha .

And what do you expect, Phil? The Republicans keep the senate? They would gain seats?

[windjammer]

A question to Phil or anyone who has a lot of knowledge about PA:
If Wolf wins, will the PA Supreme Court be controlled by democrats during his term???

[windjammer]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/actor-pennsylvania-campaign-ad-starred-2-torture-porn-films-article-1.1933784

lmao

[windjammer]

I hope PPP will poll PA. Just for the state senate. I read basically: "BLABLA THE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED, and "BLABLA THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN 2 SEATS", would like to have some polls .