I really think it depends on the candidate, for instance, Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem share many of Trump's weaknesses, but not as many of his strengths. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, may not appeal to the Rust Belt as much, but can surely stop some of the bleeding for Republicans in places like AZ, probably do well enough in Las Vegas/Clark to win NV, also perhaps improve enough in the WOW region to win Wisconsin. I think the idea that Republicans wouldn't turn out for Nikki Haley, because she's an Indian woman is a bit overrated. However, I'll just say that if current party coalitions don't change, it becomes hard to see a GOP victory past 2032/2036, assuming they win with their current coalition sometime before then. Final prediction: either they win one term in 2028 and then get turfed out due to demographic change in the Sunbelt or they blow 2028 or demographic change in the Sunbelt occurs sooner than expected, and as a result, they need to reinvent their party. Not sure which right now, but I think they do have a shot in 2024, but with how difficult it is to oust incumbents, Biden should be favored, and I think Harris is a lot less weaker than many think. However, by 2028, I'd expect fatigue to set in, especially across the swingy Midwest, and if states like TX and AZ have not undergone enough urban growth to save the Democrats, it'd be tough to see them win.
This analysis is right but the problem with nominating a Nikki Haley type is that most of the areas where she'd probably improve wouldn't flip a lot of electoral votes. I could see her doing better in Colorado and Virginia for instance, but not enough to win the states. She probably does worse than Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. That's probably ballgame right there.
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