2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

[Non Swing Voter]

so a GOP gerrymander basically just nets them the two new seats?  That's not going to cut it if Dems do end up gerrymandering NY.

It also shores up a lot of seats though which means they won't have to spend as much money in TX protecting vulnerable seats. But ye, currently the GOP is pretty maxed out in the current TX House config, especially since a lot of the Dem areas have grown significantly in population since 2010.

This is why I don't think gerrymandering is going to hurt Dems as much as people here keep saying... I guess Florida is a wild card but it seems like Dems can do real damage in New York that more than makes up for Texas.  Then you have a number of states that were Republican gerrymanders 10 years ago which will now have commissions.  Plus the fact you noted that Dem areas have tended to grow in population (not just in TX but everywhere else). 

[Non Swing Voter]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1435367198952931328
Governor Abbott has announced a redistricting special session towards the end of the month.

What is the absolute bare minimum number of seats they can draw for democrats? 8-30?

Well, you need at least two Democrats in Dallas, probably three, and at least one of those is VRA mandated (whether or not 33 is mandated is more iffy), for Houston, you need three VRA seats, and maybe a fourth Democratic sink, in the south you need three Hispanic seats, at least one of which would likely end up as Democratic, you need a VRA seat in El Paso, you need a VRA seat in San Antonio, and at least one sink, preferably 2 on the San Antonio-Austin corridor. The bare minimum seems to be 29-9, but that looks like a pipe dream and would probably involve many seats that turn into instant dummymanders. 27-11 or 26-12 are realistically the max that they'd go, and even that could be iffy. My personal guess is somewhere between 26-12 and 23-15.

I’m very curious as to how the maps get laid, as I honestly think it’s going to be very difficult to gerrymander any democrats away without creating a squid monster map. Then again Texas Republicans are going scorched earth tactics so I wouldn’t put it past them to try an insane map and ignore VRA districts to force a court challenge.

Yeah why would we assume any different.  It's exactly what they did with abortion.  Texas Republicans really seem to be bottom of the GOP barrel in terms of integrity.

[Non Swing Voter]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

Do we actually think SCOTUS has any integrity at this point?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

Ah no wonder.  I thought the numbers should have been more like 38 or something, that explains it.  I think they will definitely shore up that Crenshaw seat big time because he's like the GOP golden boy right now. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1439369109532286977

So Cook is now saying it might be a 25-13 congressional map in Texas.  Which I believe means the GOP only nets the two new seats... 

[Non Swing Voter]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

[Non Swing Voter]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

You'd think it would be hard to gerrymander state legislatures too, But I guess not.  What I mean is, if you have large rural areas it's kind of hard to do "fajitas" when the population of the districts is so low.  The GOP's suburban coalition of 2010 made it much easier for them to gerrymander than their rural/exurban coalition of 2020.  If Dems had power they could actually do a lot of damage in redistricting. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

that sucks.  Good thing there is Dem gov. for other issues at least, otherwise there'd probably;ly be completely unchecked GOP insanity there.

[Non Swing Voter]

Made this map without looking much at partisan data. This was the result.
Effort was made to keep counties whole and districts compact.

In Harris County I created a new Latino-opportunity CD. 29 now moves south to take ina reas all the way to the Galveston County border, while remaining likely Latino-controlled (Latino VAP in the high 50s). 2 is converted into a Latino seat that is 55% Latino VAP and 58% Latino in overall population. Meanwhile, 18 is redrawn to remain Black-controlled, taking in parts of Fort Bend and shifting south because of 2 having new borders. 7 is designed to be a "white sink" but this was infeasible and it really ends up as a coalition CD likely to elect an Anglo Democrat. 9 is probably Black-controlled still but has a major Latino plurality in the neighborhood of the 40s. All these CDs are basically safe Dem in Anno Domini 2021. 25 is R-leaning, and 36 takes in a fair bit of northeastern Harris County, including Kingwood.

In Metro DFW, 6 districts are nested within Dallas and Tarrant, including a district drawn to elect a Black Democrat (30) and an Latino Democrat (33). 6 was redrawn to have as many Latinos and Blacks as possible while continuing to be clean. 32 is a left-overs CD that voted Biden by 12. Meanwhile 24 moves west and under these lines votes Trump by 12. And 12 becomes more marginal, while remaining firmly GOP-leaning. Collin County was split between three districts, with a compact district (3) taking in the southwestern quadrant. 4 loses a lot of area in the western half of Collin County, which in turn is taken by the new district, 38. 38 takes in leftovers from Collin and Denton and a bunch of exurban counties. Together, 3, 4, and 5 surround the metroplex's urban counties.

The fajitas were tweaked with the help of partisan data. Nonetheless, TX-15 voted for Biden by only 228 votes. If this district starts to cease being performing then it would have to be tweaked. Two performing Latino seats are nested within Bexar. 10 continues to run from Harris to Travis. 37, a new district, takes in most of Travis County, and 31 now takes in a small slice of Travis.

As this map was drawn largely without regard for partisan data and sought to create districts within big counties, it was pretty structurally Dem-favoring, and Biden won 21 of 38 seats. The median district voted for him by 2 points, which produces an even larger Dem geographic bias than in normal elections and evidently reflects Biden's improvement in many suburban areas. I would thus categorize it as a fair-non-partisan map, not a fair-proportional map. The latter would probably take steps that favor Rs in some areas, such as removing the Travis portion of 31 and replacing it with blood red rurals.

Here's the details.

Map looks clean AF.  Amazing that it's that Dem skewed.

[Non Swing Voter]

So basically TX redistricting looks like a wash, no net pickups for either party = the most likely outcome in 2022?

[Non Swing Voter]

So basically TX redistricting looks like a wash, no net pickups for either party = the most likely outcome in 2022?

If this map stands, my money is on TX-15 flipping in 2022, being swingy in 2024, and then marching right, but the RGV trends are so weird that honestly who knows. All the D seats besides that are fairly safe though

so at best, the GOP nets 1 seat?

[Non Swing Voter]

I expect this to get a rather unhappy reception in the courts.

It would be beautiful if this massively backfires and the courts draw a dem majority map

Who would do that?  The crappy right wing Texas courts or the Crappy right wing 5th Cir./Crappy right wing SCOTUS?

Stealing Judicial seats did pay off for Cocaine Mitch..  It's definitely bought his nearly extinct party some time.

[Non Swing Voter]

I expect this to get a rather unhappy reception in the courts.

It would be beautiful if this massively backfires and the courts draw a dem majority map

Who would do that?  The crappy right wing Texas courts or the Crappy right wing 5th Cir./Crappy right wing SCOTUS?

Stealing Judicial seats did pay off for Cocaine Mitch..  It's definitely bought his nearly extinct party some time.

If it ends up as a federal case, it would be some random District Court judge (probably in the Western District of Texas, since that's where Austin is) who does the actual drawing, which could be anyone. The Supremes/5th Circuit wouldn't get involved in actually drawing the map.

Why wouldn't the 5th Circ. just overturn the random judge and return it to the legislature's map?  And then the SCOTUS refuse to hear any appeal?  That seems like the likely outcome if it even got that far.