What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday? (user search)
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  What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday?  (Read 453 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« on: February 29, 2020, 10:36:01 PM »
Seems like some states (e.g., Massachusetts, Vermont, Alabama) are likely to lean heavily one way or another.  What states will be the most telling?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 11:08:10 PM »
Quote from: Storr on February 29, 2020, 11:03:58 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
The North Carolina Dems aren't 60% black. Plus NC has 10% of the population Hispanic.

What percent African American is it likely to be?  35-40?  Based on a quick google search it looks like it's about 22% black but I'm assuming it will be substantially higher for the Dem primary.  Though there are probably more liberal white Dems in NC than SC and there are a lot of colleges.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 11:09:12 PM »
Quote from: Councilor Gracile on February 29, 2020, 11:08:03 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?

He may be a slight favorite, but the composition of the primary electorate is much more unfavorable for him than South Carolina (more White and Hispanic Democrats, more urban, has a higher rate of educational attainment, etc). North Carolina is probably Biden's weakest Southern state and one I could see him losing.

weaker than Arkansas?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2020, 11:14:33 PM »
Will Bloomberg win any state now?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2020, 11:53:11 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on March 02, 2020, 11:52:00 PM
Besides my own:

1. Texas
2. Virginia
3. North Carolina
4. Massachusetts
5. Minnesota
6. Oklahoma
7. Arkansas

which ones of those does Biden need to win to have a good night?
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