VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Non Swing Voter]

The VA GOP still hasn't learned.

This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

spot on analysis.  this kind of thing only tends to work where it's a totally one sided state and therefore the primary electorate of the minority party is either fairly similar to the other party (MA) or is reasonable and settles for a moderate (MD).  Virginia is kind of that sweet spot where one party has a clear advantage but it's not so overwhelming that the minority party comes to the center. 

It's going to get really bad for republicans going forward too.  After redistricting there's no doubt that downstate is going to cede a lot more power to NoVa and there's almost no area in the growth areas of NoVa where Republicans seem to even be able to carve out a district.  So that's basically going to just add a bunch more liberal state legislators.

[Non Swing Voter]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

The Democrats would still win with any of these candidates.  Democrats just need to run a pro-capitalist moderate (to somewhat liberal on social issues) to win Virginia now.  A socialist like Bernie would obviously not do, but a moderate, even with personal issues, has a substantial advantage in the state.  NoVa's margins have become too overwhelming to overcome downstate.  The only way for a Republican to win is to cut into those margins.  The only way to cut into those margins is for an unacceptable democrat to run.  But the personal issues of those three don't = unacceptable for NoVa voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.

You seriously believe in the fairy tale that Biden will win by double digits statewide?

Fairytale?  Really?  Have you not been paying attention to Virginia elections recently.  Hillary won it by 5 yes.  But they didn't nominate Sanders or Hillary this year.  They nominated a strong candidate.  Did you not see the epic turnout in Virginia and how Biden handily won?  Were you not aware of Northam's near double digit victory or Trump's abysmal approval rating here?  How is it a fairytale to think that Biden will improve 5 points on Hillary in a better national environment for Democrats, in a state that's clearly trending D.  Without Comey's shenanigans Hillary probably would have won by a slightly larger margin too, closer to Northam's.  But Virginia doesn't have early voting so everyone voted after his little stunt.