Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,169
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« on: June 08, 2014, 11:00:13 PM » |
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All of the coastal states are trending democrat, probably even SC to a lesser degree than the others.
Virginia is obviously trending the fastest due to: (1) increased minority population, (2) increased urban/suburban population in NOVA.
Florida is trending (or will be trending) democrat due to: (1) demographic changes, (2) increased urban/suburban population, particularly in the I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa, and (3) northern transplants moderating the state generally while the Republican party continues to get more extreme on social issues.
The others are trending for similar reasons but at a slower pace it seems. North Carolina and Georgia the next fastest, South Carolina the slowest.
If Hillary runs I think Republicans will be surprised how poorly the GOP will do in Florida. I could see her winning by over 5 points despite the state being fairly even over the last few elections. She's not going to do worse than Obama in South Florida, but will probably do better in central Florida as that part of the state continues to gain relative significance. She will probably also do slightly better than Obama in Northern Florida.
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