A Big Day for Polls: Colorado leaves "Closest Races", Trump closest in Month (user search)
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  A Big Day for Polls: Colorado leaves "Closest Races", Trump closest in Month (search mode)
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Author Topic: A Big Day for Polls: Colorado leaves "Closest Races", Trump closest in Month  (Read 737 times)
ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,566
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« on: July 13, 2016, 04:22:10 PM »
« edited: July 13, 2016, 04:31:13 PM by ProudModerate2 »

I had indicated that trump would probably get a small bump in the polls from the FBI Director Comey statement.
Nothing unexpected here.

The question is will trump get an additional "bump" from the R Convention next week ?
..... or will the convention be a disaster/circus with massive drama, where he falls in the polls ?
Or, will he come out of the convention without the nomination ? (Ljube's favorite scenario.)
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ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,566
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 04:46:52 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 01:44:10 PM by ProudModerate2 »

Let's not just to conclusions based on one day of polling. I do agree that PA is more likely to go for Trump than CO, but one 13-point lead for Hillary in CO doesn't automatically make it Safe D, and one Trump +6 poll in PA doesn't make it Lean R. It's amusing to see this from both sides:

"LOL, look at all the red/blue avatars calling this poll junk because they don't like the results!"
Followed by this on another thread:
"What!? No way is Trump/Clinton leading by that much! Junk!"

Very true.
But I do feel that the poll indicating a 13-point lead in CO does seem rather high (though I do believe Hillary leads by a small margin).
And the new Quinnipiac polls for trump in FL/OH/PA, seem lopsided in his favor. These polls at most should be near even, or possibly a tiny lead by Hillary.
But I'm sure there will be more polls soon, so we will see what happens. Story to-be-continued.
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