National polls don't mean much; especially at this time; more than a half year before the election. Nobody imagined back in summer and fall that TRUMP would even win a single primary (or that he would still be around in February). Most oberversers thought that his campaign was just a joke. Now he's the frontrunner and has a 95% chance to get the nomination. And I'm absolutely sure that TRUMP will close the poll gap by fall. He will do great in the debates and then turn the tide.
Hes down by 3-5 points and is duplicating Romney numbers, Dems will win 272 and have a 50/50 chance in OH and Va. Just like what happened in 2012.
He is not currently "down 3-5 points." The current RCP weighted average, in a Clinton-Trump matchup, has trump down approx. 11 points (spread). That's quite a bit, even as early as it is.
Source :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html(Added) PS: Maybe you mean that your numbers are the end result in November. If that's the case, then I agree (somewhat) with your scenario.
