Does Hillary Win?

[bedstuy]

You can find two polls with a trend you like and then extrapolate that out at a constant rate until election day.  

That is not accurate though.  You can find nationwide polls in 2013 where Chris Christie leads Hillary Clinton, you can find polls from 2014 where Mitt Romney leads Clinton, you can find polls where she's leading by 20%, at this point it's complete noise.  Polls aren't accurate at all until the dust of the primary race has settled, we're not anywhere close to that.

It's dumb to say that Hillary Clinton is going to win because of the polling.  It's dumb to say that she's going to steadily lose 2% every month because you hope she will.  It's just grasping at random facts that you like, it's completely subjective nonsense.  All we know is that Hillary Clinton has a small but significant lead on the Republican field at this point.  But, leading an election with a year and a half to go is pretty much worthless, things change.  

Elections are really complicated and unpredictable.  If you want to say something worthwhile, you need to get much more granular and talk about specific variables that will affect the outcome.  Just throwing out little facts or trends, XYZ happened in 1988, it's just worthless grasping at straws.