It's an irreligious New England state with some exurbs thrown in. The major hurdle for Republicans is thus social issues and sheer cultural polarization. There are simply not enough people voting GOP, "because Jesus." And, that's really the foundation of GOP success, culturally conservative rural voters providing their margin. In New Hampshire, those people just don't exist in any significant number.
I'll disagree. It's all about the candidate. A Libertarian-minded candidate like Rand Paul would do well there assuming he is the nominee. The reason it doesn't go Republican regularly in a Presidential field is because of the atmosphere of the candidate. Let's have a rundown of the elections since it became a swing state.
92: Unpopular incumbent. Southern at that. Ross Perot
96: Popular incumbent
00: I have no idea really
04: Patriot Act backlash and a regional son as the Democratic nominee
08: Wave
12: Elitist minded Romney and a high percentage of Indies voting for Obama
An analysis will conclude that the Indies contribute to its elasticity. A southern evangelical won't bode well there, but a Libertarian will. Rand Paul has proven to be competitive there, even against the Great Female Savior. Hell, it had two Republican senators until one was swept away by a wave. The same could theoretically have happened to Shaheen against a non-carpetbagger and more time for her IRS involvement to brew. Had he run, we would have a Senator Gatsas right now, for example.
No.
"An analysis?" The only similarity to an analysis of that is that you pulled it from the area of the first four letters of the word "analysis."
