bedstuy
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Posts: 4,526
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35
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« on: October 18, 2014, 05:17:34 PM » |
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« edited: October 18, 2014, 05:21:10 PM by bedstuy »
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It's a variable in states that have strong Democratic parties and a track record of out performing polling averages. Iowa and Colorado fall into that category. However, in states like Georgia, Kentucky and Alaska, you basically do the opposite calculation. Democrats haven't proven that they know how to win competitive elections in those states.
The other major variable is the question of the reliability of polling. There seem to be standout polls like the Pew National poll, the DMR poll in Iowa, but 2012 was a somewhat spotty year for polling. Many statewide polls underestimated Obama's strength, possibly because of cell phones and reliance on inaccurate likely voter screens. On top of that, midterms polling actually tend to be even more inaccurate than presidential year polling. But again, that cuts both ways. For all we know, the polling is skewed in favor of Democrats and there's going to be extremely low turnout among key Democratic groups.
That's the basic problem with looking at these subjective factors, for every factor you can cite on one side, there's a factor cutting the other way. That's why polling is generally the best indicator, it's objective. We can cross our fingers and hope, but ultimately, without really solid evidence backing us up, we're just like a more informed, rational version of Dick Morris.
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