IL-02 special election thread

[ill ind]

  Several possible replacements candidates have been named:

  Will Burns--Chicago Alderman
  Anthony Beale--Chicago Alderman who kicked about primarying JJJ back in March
  Debbie Halvorsen---primaried JJJ back in March, but I think done in politics.
  Toi Huchinson--Halvorsen's former chief of staff and her replacement in the Il State Senate when she went to Congress.  AA senator in a non AA majority Senate district, so could be an interesting candidate. 
  Sam Adam Jr--R. Kelly and Rod Blagojevich's attorney--interesting but doubtful.

  Whoever would win would have to carry the heavy AA precincts on Chicago's southside.  Back in March Halvorsen kicked JJJ's rear in Will and Kanakakee Counties and even carried Chicago's 10th ward on the far Southeast side, but still wound up with under 40% of the vote.  Heck the GOP candidate this time around kicked his rear in Will and Kankakee Counties but still got nowhere.  (JJJ was particluarly unpopular in the far southern part of his district where people didn't want the Peotone Airport he kept pushing.)  That makes the Chicago Alderperson candidates: Beale, Burns probably most likely to win as they have a base already on the south side.  Hutchinson represents none of Chicago, but would have a base in the  far south suburbs anchored around Chicago Heights which probably wouldn't be enough unless the Chicago vote was split.  After the primary they will have a special general election which would be pretty meaningless.  Obama got over 80% in this district in 2012.

  As far as Little Lip in Il-3 is concerned:  He isn't going anywhere.  He ran several points ahead of Obama in his district.  He has considerable appeal to the remaining white working class (Reagen Democrats) of his district, not to mention that he has considerable Chicago 'machine' support and running a liberal against him in the primary probably would probably make good headlines on Daily Kos, but would probably be a miserable failure in reality.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  The filing deadline for this seat has now passed.  The following have filed for the special Feb 26 primary to replace JJJ

Democratic:
  Larry D. Pickens
  O. Patrick Brutus
  Fatimah N. Muhammad
  Former Congresswoman and 2012 JJJ primary challenger Deborah Halvorson
  Frequent candidate (Senate,Lt Gov, etc) Joyce W. Washington
  2012 write-in candidate Anthony W. Williams
  Ernest B. Fenton
  John Blyth
  Charles Rayburn
  Gregory Haynes
  Jonathan Victor formerly known as Victor Onafuye until name changed on October 18,2012
  Former Congressman Mel "MR" Reynolds
  Chicago Alderman Anthony A. Beale.
  15th Dist State Senate-Elect and former NFL player Napoleon Harris
  40th Dist State Senator Toi W. Hutchinson
  Former State Rep and 2010 State Treasurer nominee Robyn Kelly
  Clifford J. Eagleton

Republican:
  Eric M. Wallace
  James H. Taylor Sr.
  Beverly E. Reid
  Lenny McAllister
  Paul McKinley

My guess is that after all of the ballot challenges have been settled, this list will be considerably shorter.

  Beale, Kelly, Halvorson, and Hutchinson are the 'real' candidates in the Dem primary.  One of those four will win.
  In 2010 Governor Quinn got 77% of the major party vote and in 2012 Obama got 81.3% of the major party vote in this district, so I'll go way way out on a limb and predict that whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will win the general quite handily.

  The district is 33.47% white, 53.77% black, .79% Asian, and 11.09% Hispanic.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  So far the race has been Halvorsen,Hutchinson, and Kelly.

  Robin Kelly has gone 'all in' on the guns issue hitting Halvorsen and Hutchinson for their A and A- respective ratings from the NRA. She gets and F.

  Cook County board chair Toni Prckwinkle came out and endorsed Toi Hutchinson.

  It will be interesting to see how many Republicans pick Democratic primary ballots in Will and Kankakee Counties.  There are no other primary races and the GOP primary is an exercise in futility anyways.   That would help Halvorsen and Hutchinson who are better know there.

  The real wildcard in the race is Chicago.  About 1/3 of the Dem primary votes in 2012 came from Chicago.  None of the 3 lead candidates are from there.  Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale is in the race, but has been pretty quiet.

Ill_Ind

The rest of the pack has been pretty quiet.

[ill ind]

  I would suspect Halvorson and Hutchinson's rating are due to the fact that they both have had to run in the rural areas of the present 2nd district whereas Kelly has never needed to do so.
  In 2010 Halvorson lost a challenge from the right to Adam Kinziger and Hutchinson held off a strong tea party supported challenge from Adam Baumgartner.  Both needed to appeal to the rural voters in their respective districts--hence their appeal for NRA support.
  Kelly on the other hand was elected from Il-38 which did and still does represent predominately African American areas of the Towns of Rich and Bremen.  She never had to worry about a challenge from the GOP, so she was free to adopt any view on guns she wanted.
 
Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  The Kankakee County Democratic Central Committee has unanimously endorsed Hutchinson and the Kankakee County Republicans held a bi-partisan rally for her (knowing that their chances of electing a Republican in Ill-2 are on par with a snowball's chance in hell even though Romney won in Kankakee County in November)
  Gives one a taste for how the southern part of the district is leaning.

  The 'rural' areas of Kankakee and Will Counties cast 11.3% of the Democratic primary vote in 2010, but 19.88% of the overall primary vote.  Since there are no other elections and winning the Democratic Primary is pretty much a given for being elected to the seat, it remains to be seen how many Republicans will cross over and vote in the Democrativ primary.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Halvorson going on Fox isn't really such a bad idea.

  In this race 10,000 votes is likely enough to win.  Doesn't matter how you get it.  It will be interesting to see where it comes from as well.  If Chicago has a lower turnout than Kankakee County, then Halvorson would have made a good gamble.  There are no GOP elections going on except the GOP primary for this race.  The Democratic primary is the defacto election here, so it would make sense to try and attract crossover voters.

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  A snowstorm is hitting Chicago today, so it will be interesting to see who wins this ultra ultra low turnout race.  IT was supposed to be rain until about 4:00pm, but at noon, it is already snowing very hard.  If weather is better in the south (Will and Kankakee Counties) that would help Halvorson.  If it is bad all over and the party turns out 'its' voters that would bode well for Kelly.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

For all you numbers junkies:
5 numbers --first is Chicago, 2nd is Suburban Cook, 3rd is Will, 4th is Kankakee, and 5th is total vote

Dem
Robin Kelly               9,900     18,430    1,214      1,255     30,799
Clifford J. Eagleton        38           132         19            15          204
Toi W. Hutchinson       273           877           -           362       1,512  (No total given for Will)
Anthony A. Beale     3,470        2,634       139         151       6,394
Mel Reynolds               176           239          15           24          454
Victor Jonathan             10              65           0            16             91
Gregory Haynes            34              95           5              8           142
Charles Rayburn           21              47            0             6              74
John Blyth                      16             74            4            10          104
Earnest B. Fenton       376         1,093         36           32        1,537
Anthony W. Williams   164            361         96           24           645
Fatimah Muhammed      89            111           4             6            210
Larry D. Pickens            60              60           2            14           136
Debbie Halvorsen     1,602        6,113    2,911      3,999    14,625
O. Patrick Brutus           16              35           0             4              55
Joyce Washington        987        1,403         74            98       2,562
Write-In                           -                  -            1             5               6


GOP front runner Paul McKinley is  already a convicted felon and given the history of people who have held this seat, he has a leg up on the competition.

Ill_Ind
         

[ill ind]

  The last post cut me off.  Here are the GOP totals

Lenny McAllister        60        242          199      368      869
Beverly A. Reid           62        181            76      212      531
Paul McKinley             81        319          198      357      955
James H. Taylor Sr     26          79              -        122      227 (withdrew-not toalt in Will)
Eric M. Wallace           39        285          254      354      932

In the Dem pimary Halvorsen carried Will and Kankakee Counties and also Chicago's 10th ward which is not majorityAfrican American.  (23% White, 16% AA, and 60% Hispanic)

Ill_Ind