SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Lurker]

Lets say that S-MP-V ends up very close to M-FP-C-KD along with a strong SD showing.  What are the chances of a grand coalition between S-MP and some combination of M-FP-C-KD to keep out V and SD? Or has S and M ruled that out already.

An extremely small chance.

[Lurker]

So, I read about the new "controversy" that has caused some fuss in the media, and led to Stefan Löfven being portrayed as a bully by the centre-right (or something).

Then I saw a clip of the incident: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/valaret2014/article19521250.ab (the second video on this page).
LOL. If anyone is being aggresive here, it's the leader of the Centre Party. What a ridiculous story.

[Lurker]

Seems like the consensus of all the recent polls are

S+MP+V        > M+FP+C+KD
S+MP            < M+FP+C+KD
S+MP+V        < M+FP+C+KD + SD
S+MP+V+FI   > M+FP+C+KD + SD
FI                  < 4

I wonder if at the grassroots level S and MP are pushing pushing FI/S and FI/MP marginal voters to note vote FI so their vote is not wasted and risk S+MP+V failing to get a majority.  And at the same time FI are pushing the same marginal voters to vote FI to get it over 4% and ensure a center-left government.  If both are taking place then most likely they will cancel each other out and FI will fail to cross 4% by a small margin.  One way out is for S and MP to ask such votes to vote FI which from a game theory point of view makes sense on the short run but hurts S and MP on the long as they enabled a long term certer-left rival.  I wonder which way S and MP strategists will go?

A problem with this is that the Red-Greens + FI is  not bigger than the government + Sweden Democrats in most polls. The average currently shows the latter combination as gaining a larger percentage (though this is within the margin of error). Your point about enabling a long-term centre-left "rival" is an interesting one.

I'll post the full polling average below.

[Lurker]

Polling average with one day to go (http://svenskopinion.nu/).

Social-Democrats - 30,0%

Miljöpartet - 9,1%

Vp - 6,7%

Red-Greens: 45,8%


Moderaterna: 21,8%

Center Party: 6,2%

Fp:                6,2%

Kd:           5,2%   

Alliance: 39,3%


Sweden Democrats: 10,6%

FI: 3,3%

[Lurker]

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close.

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?

[Lurker]

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%.

It could happen of course, but unlike the crap British polling industry, Sweden's has actually tended to be pretty good. So I'd be more surprised if your pollsters screwed up that much.

[Lurker]

Early exit poll

Red-Greens: 44,9%

Alliance: 39,3%

Sweden Democrats: 10,4%

Feminist Initiative: 3,7%

If this is correct, there will not be a left-wing majority even if FI makes the treshold. SD to hold the balance of power.

Edit by El Caudillo: exit poll leak

[Lurker]

Early exit poll

Red-Greens: 44,9%

Alliance: 39,3%

Sweden Democrats: 10,4%

Feminist Initiative: 3,7%


If this is correct, there will not be a left-wing majority even if FI makes the treshold. SD to hold the balance of power.

They are allowed to release early exit polls before voting has ended ?

I have no idea. They have done so, at any rate (Metro/YouGov)

Though the "official" exit polls won't be out until 20.00.