County tie

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Between a generic D and generic R, I'd go with Coös County, New Hampshire.

Between Trump and Warren, it's just too unpredictable. Ties are so uncommon that the only one I've ever seen is Bruce Rauner and Pat Quinn tied in the Chicago suburb of River Forest in 2014.

If Trump blows Warren out, it's because he regains Romney-like numbers or better among the wealthy (who are opposed to Warren's desire to take their money) while expanding or at least holding onto his numbers among rural blue-collar voters. In this case, I would go with Marion County, Indiana (which Bush won) or Bucks County, Pennsylvania.

If Warren blows Trump out, she's probably found out a way to outflank him with lower-income rural whites without losing her hold on minorities or rich suburbanites. I'm assuming minorities are out of the picture for Trump no matter what after how his first term has gone. A Rust Belt county that voted Obama/Trump would be a good pick. Perhaps Elliot County, Kentucky.

In a close race, we probably move back toward Romney/Obama numbers a bit, in which case a good choice is Kent County, Delaware.