The African Population Boom of the 21st Century (user search)
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  The African Population Boom of the 21st Century (search mode)
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Author Topic: The African Population Boom of the 21st Century  (Read 7255 times)
Blue3
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« on: May 06, 2018, 08:19:26 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_population_(United_Nations,_medium_fertility_variant)


Sorting from greatest to least, in terms of UN projected population in the year 2100:

Nigeria is going to grow from 200 million to 750 million, and become #3 in population

The DRC is going to grow from 90 million to 390 million, and become #5.

Tanzania is going to grow from 60 million to 300 million, and become #7.

Ethiopia from 110 million to 240 million, becoming #9.

Niger from 24 million to 210 million, becoming #10.

Uganda from 45 million to 200 million, becoming #11.

Kenya from 50 million to 155 million, becoming #17.

Angola from 30 million to 140 million, becoming #19.

Mozambique from 30 million to 130 million, becoming #20.

Sudan from 45 million to 125 million, becoming #21.

Madagascar from 30 million to 105 million, becoming #23.

Zambia from 20 million to 105 million, becoming #25.

Ivory Coast from 20 million to 100 million, becoming #26.

Mali from 20 million to 90 million, becoming #27.


Other countries with huge population booms will be
- India (#1 at 1.7 billion... while China decreases to only 1.01 billion at #2)
- the USA at #4 with 450 million
- Pakistan at #6 from 210 million to 365 million
- Egypt at #12, from 100 million to 200 million
- Philippines at #15, from 105 million to 170 million
- Iraq at #16, from 40 million to 165 million

Like China, the countries of Indonesia (#8), Brazil (#13), Bangladesh (#14), and Russia (#22) will actually lose population... while Mexico (#18) & Vietnam (#24) only slightly gain.

And then we have Turkey at #28, Japan at #30, UK at #32, France at #34, Germany at #40, Italy at #49, Australia at #53, South Korea at #61, Spain at #62, Israel at #81, Norway at #109, Greece at #111, Finland at #121, for some reference.



Africa is going to experience a huge population boom, and will become home to about half of the total human population.

The African Union also has the potential to gain strength, and the AU already plans to create a common currency, central bank, and free trade area by 2023. It has also already shown it is capable of conducting military operations.

These countries are also industrializing at a rapid pace, and we may soon see an African version of the "Asian Tigers" like what happened with Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.



What will be the impact of all this on international politics in the 21st Century?
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Blue3
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2018, 08:41:38 PM »

Population projections that far off into the future are not useful.
You can sort by other decades too... 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090.

No projection like this is ever 100% accurate, but it's usually close. And the trends are clear.

There will be an African Population Boom, even if the exact magnitude of it is debatable. The question is, how will that affect international politics?
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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2018, 11:08:33 PM »

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

1. Refugee crises

2. Who says it will be a problem? An industrialized Africa with such a large population could become a superpower.
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Blue3
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2018, 03:04:13 PM »

To those who think fertility is declining fast in Africa ... they are wrong.

As I have posted in my Global Census thread, recent census results from major African countries actually suggest that growth has picked up speed, not declined.

Virtually all African countries are growing by about 3% or even more than that - which will put a huge burden on the biosphere that is already getting destroyed heavily there.

Even the Arab countries in the North of Africa, which had declining growth rates between 1980 and 2005, are now experiencing significantly higher fertility rates and growth than before - mostly because of the spread of Islamism and its backwards ideology - sponsored by Saudi-Arabia.

Also, Africa is different than other poor regions on the planet where fertility has been falling: Most African men and women think it is desireable to have large families with 6-10 children, so the estimates shown in the OP are likely being correct.

This will be a huge disaster for the continent and the people there, biosphere and animals - but also for Europe, because it is likely that large impoverished masses will swamp the continent later on.
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Blue3
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2020, 03:24:09 PM »

Has anyone seen statistics showing any change in projections?
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Blue3
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2020, 02:01:13 AM »

https://youtu.be/ZICRNlEfS3U
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