Will Biden flip Inyo County, CA?

[politicallefty]

I think California trending/swinging R is similar to how San Francisco trended R in 2008. Although I never believed Trump could get as many votes as he did in California (although that's true across the country), I never thought Democrats could realistically hit 70% in the state. I think the overall margin in the state reflects a 65-35 breakdown, as opposed to the 70-30 split some were predicting. I don't think California's swinging or trending Republican. I think whatever trends we've seen over the past several years have simply stabilized the state for now.

Prior to Obama and since Clinton in 1992, California would vote for Democrats by roughly 10-15%. A statewide candidate hitting 20%+ was quite a feat during that era. Obama crushed that by winning the state by 24% in 2008 and 23% in 2012. That was primarily accomplished by the Democratic breakthrough into Southern California and the Central Valley. Hillary took those trends and built on them even more, including the historic win in Orange County. If you look at the map this year, Biden has actually built on the swings in most of the state. The only noteworthy swings to Trump were Los Angeles County and Imperial County (the latter being very low population). Even in Los Angeles County, Biden only lost 0.8% from Hillary. It's just that Trump went up from the basement level he had in 2016.