IA-Selzer: Ernst +4

[politicallefty]

The smell of burnt hair in here is very strong. Calm down. No, this isn't a good poll for Democrats. However, even gold standards can get it wrong. I'm also just looking at the toplines and there's no way it'll be just 88% between the two major candidates. It feels kind of wonky. It'd be different if it was 50-46 or something, but that's not what it is. I also want to see the presidential numbers because I don't think Biden was in Iowa recently for a vacation.

[politicallefty]

I tried telling people about the trends. I really did. DSCC thought it smarter to blow millions of dollars on a relatively uneducated monolithic white state in the summer than it was to use that money for the state zooming left just north of Florida that has two senate seats up for grabs. I hope we don’t lose the Senate due to that silly and inadvisable decision.

I’m sure we’ll be back here in summer of 2022 when polls show Finkenauer with a two point lead in the Senate race and Sand with a 3 point lead in the gubernatorial race only for half the forum to get their hopes up real high to only be burned again.

This 100%, imagine if all this money spent on her went to say TX or GA, if we lose both narrowly, I am going to be very mad.

I think the only race where lack of money is a real issue or has been a real issue is Texas. It sure would've been nice if Hegar raised the kinds of cash McGrath has. Ossoff, like most Democratic candidates, has raised crazy amounts of money since RBG passed. He's far outraised Perdue. As for Warnock, the Democratic field wasn't cleared, so 50%+1 is virtually impossible for him. I think the hesitation in both races has always been the residual Jim Crow runoff requirement. The money will flow for the runoff when the time comes.

[politicallefty]

So it's going to be four more years of a GOP Senate and a lame duck Biden presidency. Great.

RIP court reform and any other progressive legislation that reaches McConnell's desk. Who knows if they'll even confirm Breyer's replacement?

We're not done in Iowa. It's just one poll. We're taking CO, AZ, ME, and NC. Even with the loss in AL, that gets us to a 50-50 Senate. That's a very tenuous majority, but we also have a multitude of other opportunities, such as both GA seats and MT. And who knows what'll happen in SC, TX, or AK? (I'd assume KS isn't happening if IA isn't.) I'm not gonna say I'm not anxious about the election, but let's keep it together right now.

[politicallefty]

Under what authority would POTUS have to mandate and enforce a national lockdown? It's different for the governors, who generally have broad police powers. There are places where POTUS could act, such as airports and whatever areas and facilities that are under federal jurisdiction. A good portion of the country has already been under lockdown once and we're probably going to need another, but it will be authorized and enforced by the governors (not to mention we'll be facing collapse of the healthcare system if it has to wait for January 20th).

[politicallefty]

It's disheartening that we have to be re-imposing restrictions, and potentially heading into a renewed series of localized shutdowns, at this juncture in the pandemic. It's as if nothing has changed since March, and everything has gotten worse. As for political implications, it's possible that coronavirus fatigue may be having an effect on the election as we head into the final days. But I'll wait until Election Night to make judgment on that.

I don't like it any more than you do, but we're not going to have much choice. It'll either be lockdowns or collapse of the healthcare system and thousands of deaths per day. Unfortunately, not much has changed for a lot people. The one big positive is that a good portion of the country is under mask mandates (even if not 100% compliance, at least the vast majority). Last time I went to the grocery store a couple days ago, only people I ever saw without masks were small children (like kindergarten age). That may help to a certain extent. However, restaurants, bars, and various other businesses are going to need to close (at least for sit-down services). Some can stay partially open through take-out and delivery services, but otherwise Congress needs to help them. They need to be paid to shutdown their sit-down services and things similar to that. The national debt can take the hit, but the small businesses cannot.

I have coronavirus fatigue myself, but that's part of the reason I voted for Joe Biden. I want a President who will take this seriously and listen to the scientists/doctors and help get us through this. Trump could've done that, but he chose otherwise. I would never have voted for him, but he still could've done the right thing and he could've been cruising to reelection.