2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[politicallefty]

When DRA first came out, Washington was the first and only state. I spent a lot of time back then drawing a 9-district map. I came up with some very neat and orderly maps. A 10-district map has always been messy because of the East/West divide. I definitely want to draw a new one soon, but I always preferred crossing WA-03 along the Oregon border and avoiding the WA-08 crossing of the Cascades. The map above actually isn't too far off from I'd propose, but I would make a few changes. I do particularly like the WA-06 and WA-03 in terms of a fair map.

[politicallefty]

I haven't played around with Washington in quite some time, but I think what bothers me most in the proposals is that they keep WA-08 crossing the Cascades. I'd rather see that district out of Eastern Washington. I know something has to cross between West and East, but I'd rather see WA-03 be that district.

[politicallefty]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

[politicallefty]

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

Agree with you on both points. I was not maximally efficient for the Democrats in Yakima County because I was trying to avoid splitting Yakima city, but if you were willing to do so, you could improve my map to around Biden+3 on the southern district, or where you got it on your map with Lewis County included. Perhaps this is more likely for the Democrats although I think Biden+10 is enough for the Olympia district to be comfortable; after all, it's not like places like Olympia, Port Townsend or Bainbridge Island are trending Republican, so there is a significant degree of safety in a Biden+10 seat.

I didn't split the City of Yakima and that's something I'd avoid doing. That's actually something that's changed this decade as opposed to 10 years ago. Drawing WA-03 into Yakima County back then would've forced a split of the city itself. My alteration of your map was only to consider how Washington draws its Congressional map. It leaves WA-03 as a Trump district, but pulls it a bit to the left. It also keeps the Olympic Peninsula district more secure. (I also quite like the idea of taking that district all the way down to the OR border as a coastal district. The map I showed did that, but went one step further and added Longview. If you don't do that and add western Lewis County, you get the first scenario I mentioned.) I think the most important thing we agree on is that WA-08 should no longer cross the Cascades. It really does make the most sense that WA-03 be the sole district that transverses the West/East divide. I was only showing an alternative that might be more amenable to a commission.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1460411334626103302

[politicallefty]

It sounds like they didn't have this meeting tonight with a consensus proposal in mind or in hand.

[politicallefty]

So, a soft Republican gerrymander just like last decade when a Democrat defected? That's the only reason WA-08 crosses the Cascades. From what I understand/read, the maps can be amended with a supermajority in the Legislature (which Democrats do not have). Other than that, the only recourse is the WA Supreme Court.

[politicallefty]

What a mess. Washington does not have the best system. Either way, it looks like the Washington Supreme Court will have the final say.

[politicallefty]

What a mess. Washington does not have the best system. Either way, it looks like the Washington Supreme Court will have the final say.

I highly doubt a court is going to get involved in redistricting over 90 seconds.

I believe in textualism. If it's a soft Republican gerrymander, I would still expect a court challenge even if the deadline had been met.

Anyway, it was apparently unanimous and the maps won't be known for at least a few hours:

https://twitter.com/LillianBelle2/status/1460521710306750471