Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[politicallefty]

I think it's also worth noting that gubernatorial elections don't necessarily track the same as the national environment. Even in strong wave midterms, there's usually stuff for both parties. There is 2006, where Republicans didn't gain any governorships, but Democratic gains were somewhat underwhelming and reserved mostly to the low-hanging fruit. 1994 is probably the closest to a complete wipeout for Democrats. On the other hand, you have a strong Democratic year like 1986, but Democrats end up losing net 8 governorships (although Democrats had 34 governors at the time). Even more interesting is 2002, where 20 governorships changed parties.

Ultimately though, Georgia is a highly polarized state. I think what Stacey Abrams offers is enthusiasm for Democrats. I feel she's a genuinely exciting candidate for Democrats to get behind and the coalition to victory in the state is there now. The suburbs are hard to predict, but the key to victory in Georgia is to really juice minority turnout. It'll be especially interesting with her sharing the ballot with Senator Warnock. No one is going to run away with either race and that's something we all seem to recognize. I think it's far too soon to rate this race as anything other than a true toss-up.

[politicallefty]

Ehh I disagree as while Democrats picking up seats like NY/OH would be extremely predictable in early 2006 I dont think MD was. Elrich had pretty good approvals in Maryland and even right before election day O'Malley led by like 1 point:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/md/maryland_governor_race-42.html

Id say if 2006 wasn't a Wave Elrich would have been reelected.

I wasn't saying that waves can't move things. They most certainly do. I agree that states like NY, OH, and MA were the low-hanging fruit. For MD, I think a neutral environment would've made the race a pure toss-up. However, you also have to factor in the natural environment of certain states. That said, Charlie Cook still had MD rated a toss-up at the end. My point with 2006 is that Democrats didn't do nearly as well as expected in terms of governorships. They came up short in Alaska, Minnesota, and Nevada, not to mention the Lean R seats.