OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[politicallefty]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

I don't get it either, but isn't that area of the state DeWine's political base? He did win Hamilton County in 2006 while losing by double digits statewide. Obviously, with the Southeastern part of the state going hard right, Cordray will almost certainly have to win Hamilton now if he's going to win. Where is Cordray's base though?

[politicallefty]

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

That may be, but there's almost certainly bleed over between the Cincinnati and Dayton metros just as there is between Cleveland and Akron.

For such a polarized state, I am surprised to see the race deadlocked in the low 40s as opposed to the high 40s (like Florida when it was close). If we win the turnout race nationwide, I think we win OH-Gov by a couple points. Something really doesn't feel right about calling this race a toss-up. I'm wondering if Ohio could be the sleeper state that produces a massive Democratic resurgence.