Trump could run up the margin in the rural areas though, like Hofer did in the Austrian Presidential election. There could also be higher turnout in the rural areas than the urban areas. Or not. This is all hard to tell. On the other hand, Trump is no Hofer (who, as a Far-Right candidate has slightly positive favorable ratings ...) So, while Hofer kept the Austrian suburbs close - Trump might lose them big time.
We'll see.
That's why we're thinking high single-digits to about 7-10 instead of the nearly 21% Ed Rendell won in 2006. Philadelphia and its suburbs are huge and have a lot of college-educated whites. Rendell even put Obama's 2008 numbers there to shame, running 10-15 points ahead in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Rendell was at 70 in Bucks, 72 in Montgomery, 74 in Delaware, and 65 in Chester. If Hillary gets within even 5-7 points of those numbers, Pennsylvania might be called at poll closing. We have had a number of polls that have suggested numbers close to those.
