Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[politicallefty]

Still leading by a lot in South Dakota with 17% in.

It's a double-digit lead now.

[politicallefty]

Clinton up 69 in ND with fifteen votes counted - four percent of the state total.

...I guess turnout was low.

It's a caucus, so they probably aren't actual votes.

[politicallefty]

I guess SD just has a Hillary fetish. Maybe it'll make the GE map ugly too...

It's the only Plains state that holds a primary. I wonder how many of the others would have had different results if they weren't caucuses.

[politicallefty]

I guess SD just has a Hillary fetish. Maybe it'll make the GE map ugly too...

It's the only Plains state that holds a primary. I wonder how many of the others would have had different results if they weren't caucuses.

The SD results are almost identical to the NE beauty contest results.

I meant primary that actually counts, but that's a good point on the margins. A lot of people were saying how a beauty contest doesn't tell you anything. I think the SD results tell you otherwise, at least in terms of how different it would be holding a primary instead of a caucus.

[politicallefty]

At this point would we say that Hillary is over performing, underperforming, performing on par for CA?

It's a lot of early vote, but definitely overperforming.

[politicallefty]

I think another lesson from this primary cycle is how hard it is to poll Hispanics and that Clinton positively netted on election day compared to the polls. Could be a good sign for Clinton going into November.

I think it's also worth pointing out how good her vote-by-mail operation appears to be. That's always good news too.

Fwiw, my gut prediction for California was about a 12-15% for Hillary (which I thought a long time ago), but the recent polls made me pull that back quite a bit (to about a 7-8% win). It's still early, but I it looks like the final result will be closer to my gut than my head.

[politicallefty]

Heh, Santa Cruz county flipped to Sanders. My husband's hometown. Might be the only Bay Area county to go to him at this point...

Santa Cruz isn't the Bay Area. But unless there's a big Bernie vote in Sonoma, Hillary will sweep the Bay Area.

[politicallefty]

See here for county reporting status. Even with 100% reporting, there will still be some outstanding ballots, but it wouldn't be anything too big for a primary like this. No county that's finished reporting tonight is going to overturn a double-digit lead by anything that might be uncounted.

[politicallefty]

As does NBC, finally. That was a very long time to make a very obvious call and what's very likely to be a double-digit win in the end (as I mentioned earlier, probably about 12%).

[politicallefty]

With El Dorado now Bernie, really hoping Placer flips for aesthetic reasons.

No way does that happen, even with that amount of outstanding ballots. Placer County is to Sacramento County as Orange County is to Los Angeles County. El Dorado is a Foothills county, while Placer is dominated by the more affluent suburbs and exurbs of Sacramento. If you look at the Sacramento County results, you'd see that Hillary ran stronger against Bernie in CA-07 than in CA-06 (for those that don't know, CA-06 is based in the city of Sacramento while CA-07 covers the suburban areas of Sacramento County).