Is Hillary finished?

[politicallefty]

65% sure Clinton will not be the Dem nominee. Whether it's Sanders is another question, but it won't be Clinton.

I suggest remaining calm. Despite conventional wisdom, Wisconsin looks good for Hillary. Even if it's a loss by a few points, the delegate situation doesn't really change either way. Wait until we have results from NY, MD, and PA. There are a lot of delegates in those states. If Hillary can get some good wins out of those states, she'll be good to go. If this is drawn out until the end of the calendar, I think California and New Jersey look good as well. California won't be a blowout either way. I personally think California will look something like 2008 if it's fully contested, with Bernie overperforming in the Bay Area and Hillary overperforming in the Central Valley and Southern California.

[politicallefty]

Btw, even your post is too pessimistic. Hillary is the one with the huge delegate lead, she doesn't really need to win anything at this point. She could lose every remaining state (provided the margins in NY/CA/PA etc. aren't ludicrous) and still win the nomination.

I'm 28. As a Democrat that followed politics quite early, you learn to be very cautiously optimistic (what some would call pessimism). If the early 2000s is where you became politically aware, it's almost in your DNA to be that way. I don't take anything for granted. I believe firmly in the principle that you always fight like you're 10 points down. The aura of inevitability works against you in a Democratic primary. If she wants to win, she will have to fight for Wisconsin and the Northeastern states thereafter (whether she's favoured or not). Hillary is at her best when she's fighting from behind. She's not behind right now, but she needs to fight like she is.

[politicallefty]

I'm not saying Hillary should go on vacation for 3 months or anything (though she might still win even if she did, lol.) But the fact of the matter is, just based on math, the onus is not on her at all anymore. It's all on Bernie to make up a ~230-240 deficit.

You're right, of course. For the most part, she's winning where she won in 2008, but this time she's winning the minority vote (particularly the black vote) by a landslide. We'll see what happens in Wisconsin. Michigan makes me too uncomfortable to totally trust Wisconsin polls (even though she won all of the March 15 primaries). It feels like the kind of state that could defy polls like that. I do think it's fair to say that if she somehow loses New York (or wins by a very close margin), it's time to sound the alarm in the Clinton campaign that something is very wrong. I'm not saying that's likely, but contingency plans are always necessary. I'd rather have a comfortable lead going into June, just in case certain states decide to stray from expected results.