Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) (user search)
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  Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican Bayou/Cauci Saturday election results thread (first results @3pm ET?)  (Read 54303 times)
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« on: March 05, 2016, 04:31:47 PM »
I'm not surprised to see Cruz do so well in Kansas. It's a caucus and Plains evangelical is different from the Deep South strain.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2016, 04:41:21 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on March 05, 2016, 04:35:51 PM
Looks like Cruz has won every county that has reported until now.
Hard to see how he loses.

There's nothing from KS-03 yet, from what I can see. I have to imagine that'll be his worst district in the state. Even so, I can't imagine it affecting the results too much. I think it'll at least pull Rubio up a bit, but I don't know the threshold for Kansas (not that that might necessarily save him).
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2016, 04:53:33 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on March 05, 2016, 04:50:41 PM
Cruz seems to be doing roughly equally well in all three Kansas districts that have reported so far. This might mean that he'll win CD3 as well.

Perhaps, but I think KS-03 is far more suburban. I don't think it'll change much in the margin between Cruz and Trump, but I would think Rubio should do better there than the other three districts. Either way, Cruz should come out a big winner from Kansas.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2016, 05:04:30 PM »
Quote from: Malcolm X on March 05, 2016, 05:01:42 PM
Trump generally under-performs in Caucuses, this isn't some sort of collapse.  LA will be more important, IMO.

That may be, but lose enough caucuses badly and the delegate situation changes fast. I think Obama proved that on the Democratic side quite well in 2008. If Trump is denied a majority of delegates, a contested convention is on.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2016, 05:36:24 PM »
If the current results stand, the Kansas delegate result will be Cruz 25, Trump 11, and Rubio 4.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2016, 07:53:37 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on March 05, 2016, 07:24:53 PM
All four CDs are 100% in now in Kansas; Cruz leads with 48.2%

Just as I predicted, Rubio did best in KS-03 (second place to Trump's third), but not making much of a difference in the statewide vote. Apparently, the delegates in Kansas will go Cruz 24, Trump 9, Rubio 6, and Kasich 1.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2016, 07:56:22 PM »
Isn't coal country in Kentucky confined to pretty much one congressional district (i.e. KY-05), or basically a sixth of the state's population?
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2016, 08:23:50 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 05, 2016, 08:21:54 PM
Quote from: Bigly Trump on March 05, 2016, 08:21:03 PM
Under Kentucky rules, do either Rubio or Kasich qualify for delegates as things stand now?

Yes.  5% threshold, IIRC.

That's right. Delegates are apportioned only statewide with a 5% threshold. Right now, even Rand Paul would get a delegate.
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