politicallefty
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,330
Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22
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« on: November 11, 2012, 04:46:49 AM » |
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I also don't see how Texas can really change that much. Democrats are basically confined to the VRA-mandated districts as it is. Only two seats were even remotely close: TX-23 (as mentioned, a VRA district) and TX-14. They could shore up TX-14 (currently R+8) somewhat, but I doubt the district is at all competitive without Lampson. I can't see any reason for Texas Republicans to change the map in keeping in line with VRA mandates. Although I'm not totally sure, I think Doggett actually represents a VRA seat now, which would mean that he can't be targeted either. As it stands, Texas will be 24R-12D. The fact is that the demographic changes in Texas are Democratic-leaning, so they had nowhere to go but up from 2010.
I think it's highly unlikely we'll see any new maps in 2014 at the federal level, unless there is a successful court challenge to a map already in place (which I think there are cases at least challenging NC and FL). After that, it's anyone's guess since we don't know how 2014 will end up.
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